据Oil & Gas Journal网站12月10日报道 布伦特原油现货价格11月份平均为63美元/桶，比10月份上涨3美元/桶。根据美国能源信息署（EIA）最新发布的短期能源展望（STEO），过去一个月原油价格上涨可能反映了需求侧因素和供给侧因素的温和上涨压力。
美国经济分析局公布了对2019年第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）的第二次预估。这一估计表明，美国第三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）的年增长率为2.1%，比先前估计的增长速度更快，比第二季度的2.0%有所增长。
与此同时，11月27日标准普尔500指数收于创纪录的3153.6，当天公布的美国国内生产总值（GDP）预计较月初增长2.8%。标准普尔500指数随后在11月底和12月初下跌。总体而言，11月标普500指数上涨2.4%。
在供应方面，市场在12月6日欧佩克和伙伴国举行会议之前调整了预期。对欧佩克及其合作伙伴将延长或可能深化减产的预期，有助于支撑原油价格。
12月6日，欧佩克和其他一些石油生产国宣布，将加码原定于2018年12月宣布的减产计划。该集团目前的目标产量比2018年10月减少170万桶/天，而之前的目标产量减少120万桶/天。
欧佩克宣布，削减措施将在2020年3月底前生效。然而，EIA认为随着石油库存的增加，欧佩克将在2020年全年限制石油产量。
EIA预计欧佩克产量将在2020年下降。EIA预测，2020年欧佩克原油平均日产量将达到2930万桶，比2019年下降50万桶。
然而，EIA预测非欧佩克产量的增加将抵消这些下降，2020年全球液体燃料供应将增加150万桶/天。
EIA预测，明年全球燃料需求将增加140万桶/天。2020年布伦特原油价格将从2019年的64美元/桶降至平均61美元/桶。
EIA预计，油价下行压力将集中在2020年上半年，届时全球石油库存预计将上升。根据STEO预测，明年下半年全球石油库存将开始上升。
吴恒磊 编译自 Oil & Gas Journal
原文如下：
EIA: recent oil prices supported by better economic data, further OPEC cut
Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $63/bbl in November, up $3/bbl from October. According to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the increase in crude oil prices over the past month likely reflected modest upward pressures from both demand-side factors and supply-side factors.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its second estimate of third-quarter 2019 gross domestic product (GDP). This estimate indicated that real US GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the third quarter, a faster rate than previously estimated and an increase from growth of 2.0% in the second quarter..
Concurrently, the S&P 500 equity index closed at a record 3,153.6 on November 27—the day the US GDP estimate was released—an increase of 2.8% from the beginning of the month. The S&P 500 subsequently declined in late November and early December . Overall, the S&P 500 index was up 2.4% in November.
On the supply side, markets adjusted expectations ahead of the Dec. 6 meeting between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries. Expectations that OPEC and its partners would extend or possibly deepen the cuts, helped support crude oil prices.
On Dec. 6, OPEC and a group of other oil producers announced they were deepening production cuts originally announced in December 2018 (OGJ Online, Dec. 5, 2019). The group is now targeting production that is 1.7 million b/d lower than in October 2018, compared with the former target reduction of 1.2 million b/d.
OPEC announced that the cuts would be in effect through the end of March 2020. However, EIA assumes that OPEC will limit production through all of 2020, amid a forecast of rising oil inventories.
EIA expects OPEC production to fall in 2020. EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 29.3 million b/d in 2020, down by 500,000 b/d from 2019.
However, EIA forecasts that increased non-OPEC production will more than offset those declines and that global liquid fuels supply will rise by 1.5 million b/d in 2020.
EIA forecasts global fuels demand will rise by 1.4 million b/d next year and that Brent prices will average $61/bbl in 2020, down from $64/bbl in 2019.
EIA expects the downward price pressures to be concentrated in the first half of 2020, when global oil inventories are forecast to rise. Prices will begin to rise in the second half of next year based on this STEO’s forecast of global oil inventory draws over that period.
