据路透社12月11日报道，到2020年，液化石油气(LPG)买家将迎来又一个供应充足的年份，但石脑油作为石化行业的竞争燃料可能面临压力。

咨询和研究公司IHS Markit的数据显示，到2020年，全球液化石油气(丙烷和丁烷的混合物)的供应量将同比增长约5%，达到3.25亿吨。

IHS Markit的亚洲和中东NGL服务执行董事，同时负责该公司全球NGL的定价分析的He Yanyu表示，约28%的液化石油气来自美国，20%来自中东。

他表示：“当前，我们看到了严重的供应过剩，预计这种状况还会持续几年时间，而美国是推动供应增加的最主要的市场。其中亚洲对液化石油气的需求将占全球总需求的近45%，即1.45亿吨(每天460万桶)。”

伍德麦肯兹预计，2020年亚洲液化石油气日需求量约为440万桶，高于2019年的420万桶，其中中国的需求量占近43%。

其中，亚洲约60%的液化石油气需求来自住宅和商业领域，其中包括作为烹饪的燃料。而石化行业的需求约占亚洲总需求的20%，但这将是一个重要的出口渠道。

与丙烷脱氢工厂(PDH)不同，亚洲石脑油裂解厂可以在石脑油和液化石油气之间进行选择，后者依靠丙烷生产丙烯，而丙烯是塑料的基础。当液化石油气的价格约为石脑油价格的93%或比石脑油每吨至少便宜50美元时，通常会用液化石油气代替一部分石脑油。

伍德麦肯兹下游研究主管Sushant Gupta表示，随着液化石油气供应量的扩大，两种燃料之间的价格差距将会扩大，这可能会在轻质馏分油上引发连锁反应。

预计2020年液化石油气的平均价格将比石脑油每吨低100美元以上，而今年为70至80美元，并且由于液化石油气对石脑油影响的扩大，同样会影响汽油的价格。

王佳晶 摘译自 路透社

原文如下：

Asian LPG buyers will gain from surplus supply in 2020

Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) buyers are set to enjoy another year of abundant supplies in 2020 but naphtha as a competing fuel in the petrochemical sector could come under pressure.

Global supplies of LPG, a mixture of propane and butane, will rise by about 5% year-over-year to 325 million tonnes in 2020, data from consulting and research company IHS Markit showed.

Of this, about 28% will be from the United States and around 20% from the Middle East, said Houstan-based He Yanyu, executive director for Asia/Middle East NGL Service of IHS Markit, who also leads the firm’s global NGL pricing analysis.

“We saw a severe surplus this year, and expect the surplus situation to stay with us for a few more years... U.S. is the most significant market that drives incremental supply,” he said.

Asia will account for nearly 45% or 145 million tonnes (4.6 million barrels per day) of the total global demand, said He.

Wood Mackenzie pegged Asia’s demand in 2020 at about 4.4 million bpd, up from 4.2 million bpd in 2019, with China accounting for nearly 43% of the share.

About 60% of Asia’s LPG demand comes from the residential/commercial sector, said He, where the fuel is used for cooking among others.

Demand from the petrochemical sector accounts for about 20% of the total Asian demand, said He, but this will be a significant outlet.

Unlike Propane Dehydrogenation Plants (PDH), which rely on propane to make propylene, a building block for plastics, Asian naphtha crackers can choose between naphtha and LPG.

Crackers typically replace a portion of naphtha with LPG when the latter is about 93% of naphtha prices or when it is at least $50 a tonne cheaper than naphtha.

As LPG supply expands, the price gap between the two fuels will widen and this could set off a chain reaction within the light distillates complex, said Sushant Gupta, downstream research director at consultant Wood Mackenzie.

The average LPG prices in 2020 are expected to be more than $100 a tonne lower than naphtha compared to $70 to $80 this year, said Gupta, and as LPG pressures naphtha, that would affect gasoline.