据海上石油新闻12月10日挪威奥斯陆报道，挪威能源研究公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）预测，到2020年，非欧佩克国家的石油总产量(原油和凝析油)将日增大约226万桶，这将给欧佩克和俄罗斯明年平衡全球石油市场努力带来挑战。这将大幅度超过40年前创下的纪录。

雷斯塔能源公司上游研究主管埃斯彭·埃林森表示：“非欧佩克国家致密油和海上石油产量的创纪录高增长，对欧佩克在2020年平衡石油市场的努力构成了巨大压力。雷斯塔能源公司认为，如果欧佩克希望在短期内支撑油价，就需要扩大和深化减产。”

从欧佩克成立的1960年到2020年非欧佩克国家的石油总产量年比变化来看，1978年非欧佩克国家的石油产量增长最快，由于俄罗斯、美国、英国和墨西哥的产量增加，平均每天增加了196万桶。

明年，这个有40年历史的产量增长记录可能会被打破。雷斯塔能源公司的分析师表示，致密油预计将成为非欧佩克国家增产的一个关键因素，每日增产大约135万桶。海上石油产量将日增125万桶，其中近90万桶将来自深海。

埃林森表示：“一个独特的转变是，海上部分将成为2020年非欧佩克国家石油供应增长的主要推动力。明年非欧佩克国家创纪录的石油产量增长将几乎全部来自致密油和海上石油。

在非欧佩克国家中，受致密油产量的推动，美国是2020年石油产量增加最多的国家。挪威和巴西这两个世界上最主要的海上市场紧随其后。

挪威的石油产量增长将在很大程度上受到约翰·斯维德鲁普海上大油田以及Oda、Valhall West side和Trestakk等小型项目的推动。

埃林森说：“尽管挪威是一个相当成熟的石油生产国，但受一系列新发现的推动，挪威明年的石油产量增加可能会达到历史最高水平。“

巴西的情况也是如此，由于Buzios、Lula和Iara的项目，巴西明年的石油产量有望创下历史新高。

雷斯塔能源公司表示，到2030年前巴西国家石油公司将成为全球最大的上市石油公司。

李峻 编译自 海上石油新闻

原文如下：

Offshore to drive record non-OPEC production growth next year, says Rystad

Rystad Energy predicts that total non-OPEC production (crude oil and condensate) will grow by around 2.26 MMb/d in 2020, creating a challenge for OPEC and Russia as they attempt to balance the global oil market next year. This will eclipse the 40-year-old record by a wide margin.

Espen Erlingsen, head of upstream research at Rystad Energy, said: “The record high production growth from non-OPEC tight oil and offshore puts significant pressure on OPEC’s ability to balance the oil market in 2020. Rystad Energy believes that OPEC will need to extend and deepen production cuts if they have any hope of supporting the oil price in the near term.”

Looking at the year-over-year change in total non-OPEC oil production from 1960 – the year OPEC was founded – toward 2020, production from non-OPEC countries grew the most in 1978, growing 1.96 MMb/d thanks to increases from Russia, the US, the UK, and Mexico.

Next year, this 40-year-old production growth record may be beaten. Tight oil is expected to be a key contributor to the non-OPEC production expansion, contributing around 1.35 MMb/d, according to Rystad analysts. Offshore will balloon by 1.25 MMb/d, almost 0.9 MMb/d of which will come from deepwater.

“In a unique turn of events, it is the offshore segment which will drive much of 2020’s non-OPEC supply growth. The record-high production growth next year comes almost exclusively from tight oil and offshore,” Erlingsen said.

The US tops the list of non-OPEC countries which will see the quickest production growth in 2020, driven by tight oil production. Norway and Brazil, the world’s two dominant offshore players, follow close behind.

Norwegian production growth will in large part be driven by Johan Sverdrup, as well as smaller projects such as Oda, Valhall West Flank, and Trestakk.

“Although a rather mature producer, Norwegian production growth may reach an all-time high next year, boosted by a bevy of young finds,” Erlingsen said.

The same can be said of Brazil, where record-high production growth is expected next year thanks to the Buzios, Lula, and Iara projects.

According to Rystad, Brazil’s state oil company Petrobras is set to become the world’s largest oil producer among publicly listed companies by 2030.