据世界石油12月10日迪拜报道，在罕见地看涨石油需求一年之后，沙特阿拉伯并不指望2020年原油价格上涨。
根据彭博社中东首席经济学家Ziad Daoud的计算，这个全球最大的石油出口国在设计明年预算时，假定布伦特原油的平均价格将在每桶65美元左右。EFG Hermes认为，预算中假定的油价在60美元至62美元之间，而Capital Economics则将油价定在55美元至60美元之间。
该价格仅略高于周二的全球基准原油交易价格，而沙特阿拉伯最初在2019年的公共财政中已将该价格定为80美元。沙特阿拉伯没有披露其油价假设模型。
根据彭博社编制的预测中值，分析师预计明年布伦特原油价格将略低于61美元/桶。
Daoud称:“这次的预算是基于一个更现实的油价假设。去年的预算是建立在对原油极度看涨的假设上的，这是一种偏差，因为油价的大幅下跌并没有反映在最终的预算中。”
沙特阿拉伯领导了一场支持原油价格的运动，上周在维也纳与欧佩克+举行谈判后，以更大幅度减产震惊了石油市场。根据周一公布的计划，沙特明年的预算赤字将扩大，石油收入预计将达到5130亿里亚尔(1370亿美元)，较2019年下降近15%。
总部位于开罗的投资银行EFG Hermes研究主管Mohamed Abu Basha表示:“尽管削减了支出，但赤字仍在扩大，这清楚地反映出，在当前油价水平下，沙特预算面临的财政挑战。”
沙特财政部长Mohammed Al Jadaan在接受采访时称，沙特正在努力推动经济多元化，并在欧佩克内部进行努力，其重点是努力“稳定”收入和市场。
根据彭博经济的数据，沙特需要在油价达到每桶89美元的情况下，才能在2020年实现预算平衡，高于国际货币基金组织10月份的估计。
裘寅 编译自 世界石油
原文如下：
Saudi Arabia isn’t counting on an oil price rise in 2020 budget
A year after a rare bullish call on oil, Saudi Arabia isn’t counting on much of an uplift from crude prices in 2020.
The world’s biggest oil exporter has designed next year’s budget under the assumption that Brent will average about $65/bbl, according to calculations by Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg’s chief economist in the Middle East. EFG Hermes puts the budget’s assumed oil price at $60 to $62, while Capital Economics has it between $55 and $60.
That’s barely higher than where the global benchmark crude traded on Tuesday and compares with a price of $80 that was originally built into Saudi Arabia’s public finances for 2019. Saudi Arabia doesn’t disclose its oil-price assumption.
Analysts see Brent at just under $61/bbl next year, according to the median of forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.
“The budget this time around is based on a more realistic oil-price assumption,” Daoud said. “The basing of last year’s budget on an extremely bullish assumption for crude was an aberration because of a sharp decline in prices that wasn’t reflected in the final budget.”
Saudi Arabia has led a campaign to support crude prices, surprising the oil market last week with deeper production cuts after talks in Vienna with OPEC and its partners. For next year, the kingdom sees a wider budget deficit and projects its oil revenue at 513 billion riyals ($137 billion), a decline of almost 15% from 2019, according to plans unveiled on Monday.
“The widening of the deficit, despite spending cuts, is a clear reflection of the fiscal challenges facing the Saudi budget at current oil prices,” said Mohamed Abu Basha, head of research at Cairo-based investment bank EFG Hermes.
With its campaign to diversify the economy and efforts within OPEC, Saudi Arabia’s focus is on trying to “bring stability” to its revenue and the market, Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan said in an interview.
The kingdom would need oil to trade at $89 to balance its budget in 2020, according to Bloomberg Economics, higher than the International Monetary Fund’s estimate in October.
