据今日油价9月4日报道，电动汽车销量要想在全球汽车销量中占据稳固的份额，就必须实现大幅增长。
全球主要市场的中国和北美月销量下降了14%。资金管理公司Sanford C. Bernstein周二在一份报告中称，全球共售出约12.8万辆插电式乘用车和插电式混合动力车。
电动汽车补贴的减少和经济的降温影响了中国市场。印度政府也在努力让电动汽车以任何一种重要的方式在其城市得到采用。
2018年，全球充电式汽车销量达到210万辆，比2017年增长64%，占去年全球8600万辆总销量的2.4%。IHS Markit预计，电动汽车市场份额将在未来5年小幅上升，到2025年占全球新车总销量的7.6%左右。
不断加剧的贸易紧张局势和关税，以及经济增速放缓，加上更严格的排放规定，对中国新车的整体销量产生了影响。6月份的销售热潮在很大程度上是由经销商大幅降价推动的，以清理库存，并为新车的排放控制做准备。
Bernstein分析师在报告中表示:“由于补贴削减，增长势头在7月份停止，这并不令人意外但强劲的势头有望重现。尽管预计2019年会出现短期的疲软，但我们对电动汽车的长期需求仍持乐观态度。”
今年7月，特斯拉引领全球市场，销量约为2万辆。紧随其后的是来自中国的竞争对手比亚迪(BYD Co.)。
另一个最大的汽车市场印度，正在努力让消费者和黄包车司机改用电动汽车，并达到政府设定的目标。很明显，电动汽车的运行成本将低于目前广泛使用的柴油或压缩天然气作为燃料的汽车，但转向新的动力系统却遇到了麻烦。
印度政府曾呼吁在2017年实现一个目标——到2030年只可销售电动汽车。汽车制造商抗议称，这个目标太难了。政府希望电动汽车在对抗城市日益恶化的空气污染和应对气候变化方面发挥关键作用。
政府希望看到这种转变从两轮车转向电动汽车和卡车。一家政府智库最近发出警告，建议这项政策首先应该把重点放在电动两轮车和机动三轮车上。
印度交通部长还表示，印度可能会考虑新建只供电动汽车使用的高速公路。
外国汽车制造商和科技公司认为，印度快速增长的人口(目前已超过10亿)为电动汽车、充电站、电池等，提供了巨大的潜在市场。
韩国现代汽车公司(Hyundai Motor Co.)看到了真正的市场潜力。通用汽车去年12月承诺，未来三年将在印度投资2.5亿美元生产Kona微型SUV等电动汽车。
对印度来说，找到一个拥有可访问充电站的充电基础设施一直是一个难以克服的障碍。去年，中国电力部为安装充电站搭建了一个框架。到目前为止，只有为数不多的几个项目在拥有2000多万人口的德里地区开展。
印度主要国内汽车制造商之一的Tata集团计划在孟买和德里安装充电器，但这些充电器只能为自己的汽车充电。政府希望看到一个广泛的充电网络遍布全国。
依赖电动汽车进入大众市场，对于以排放为目标的监管机构和努力满足严格和即将出台的法规的汽车制造商来说，仍然是一个严峻的挑战。尽管近年来电动汽车总销量稳步攀升，但美国等关键市场的内燃机车继续占据上风，廉价的汽油和柴油帮助它们的销量在相当大程度上占据了主导地位。
洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
World’s Largest EV Markets Face Slowdown
For electric vehicle sales to reach a solid share of global auto sales, serious growth surges will need to happen.
Monthly sales worldwide fell 14 percent in key markets China and North America. That came to about 128,000 plug-in passenger battery-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles sold worldwide, money management firm Sanford C. Bernstein said in a report on Tuesday.
Reductions in electric vehicle subsidies and a cooling economy impacted the Chinese market. The Indian government is also struggling to get EVs to become adopted in its cities in any significant way.
Global plug-in vehicle deliveries reached 2.1 million units for 2018, 64 percent higher than in 2017 and 2.4 percent of the world’s overall 86 million units sold last year. IHS Markit sees EV market share inching up over the next half decade — reaching about 7.6 percent of total new vehicle sales worldwide by 2025.
Rising trade tensions and tariffs, a slowdown in China’s booming economy, and the implementation of stricter emissions rules, have had their impact on overall new vehicle sales in the country. Much of the the June sales boom was fueled by dealers cutting prices way down to clear inventory and prepare for emission controls coming to new vehicles.
“Unsurprisingly the growth momentum halted in July amid subsidy cuts,” Bernstein analysts said in the report. But strong conditions are expected to come back.
“Despite expected short-term weakness in 2019, we continue to be positive on long-term EV demand.”
Tesla led the global market in July, with sales of about 20,000 units. The US company was followed by Chinese competitor, BYD Co.
Another top auto market, India, is struggling to get consumers and rickshaw drivers to convert over to EVs and meet goals the government had laid out. It's clear that EVs will cost less to run than using the current widely used diesel or compressed natural gas as motor fuel, but making that conversion over to the new powertrain is hitting a wall.
India’s government had called for a lofty goal in 2017 — converting over to only EVs available for sale by 2030. Automakers have protested the target as being too difficult. The government wants to see EVs play a key role in combatting worsening air pollution in its cities and to fight climate change.
The government wanted to see this conversion go away from two-wheeled vehicles over to electric cars and trucks. One government think tank recently issued a warning, suggesting that the policy should at first focus on electric two-wheelers and motorized rickshaws.
India’s transport minister also has suggested the country may consider creating new highways reserved only for EVs.
Foreign automakers and tech companies see India’s fast growing population — at more then one billion now — as a potentially huge market for EVs, charging stations, batteries, and other tech features needed to make EVs viable.
South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Co. sees the real market potential. The automaker committed $250 million last December to build EVs such as its Kona subcompact SUV in India over the next three years.
Finding a recharging infrastructure with accessible charging stations has been a tough barrier for India to get over. Last year, the Ministry of Power put a structure in place for installing charging stations. For now, there are only a few that are yet in place in the greater Delhi area, which has well over 20 million people.
Tata Group, one of India’s major domestic automakers, plans to install chargers in Mumbai and Delhi, but these will only recharge its own vehicles. The government would like to see a broad recharging network spread across the country.
Depending on EVs reaching mass market continues to be a stiff challenge for regulatory agencies targeting emissions, and for automakers working hard to meet strict and upcoming regulations. While overall EV sales have been steadily climbing in recent years, key markets such as the US continue to see internal combustion engines winning, with cheap gasoline and diesel helping their sales dominate quite a bit.
