据普氏能源资讯9月5日报道，周四上午，亚洲洲际交易所布伦特原油期货和迪拜原油期货之间的价差大幅上升，原因是高硫和低硫原油价差开始在2020年1月IMO 2020的最后期限到来之前，赶上燃油价格暴跌的步伐。
周四上午10点(格林尼治时间02：00)，新加坡布伦特/迪拜期货掉期交易所(Brent/Dubai Exchange of Futures for swaps)名义价格为3.52美元/桶。这一数字高于周三下午4:30新加坡(格林威治时间08：30)的3.34美元/桶。
标普全球数据显示，价差触及三个月前的新高。最近一个月，布伦特原油/迪拜原油的价差上一次被评估为3.58美元/桶，是在6月7日。
2020年1月，国际海事组织(International Maritime Organization)的低硫海运燃料标准上限生效，预计低硫原油等级相对于高硫替代品的溢价将会上升。
原油中低/高硫质量价差出现分化之前，8月份高硫燃料油的利润率大幅下降。普氏能源资讯的数据显示，8月新加坡380高硫燃料油与迪拜原油期货的离岸价价差平均为负10.24美元/桶，7月为负3.55美元/桶。
布伦特/迪拜原油价差亦随之扩大，12月布伦特/迪拜原油期货合约价差周四上午名义估计为3.41美元/桶，周三晚间为3.24美元/桶。
截至新加坡时间周四上午10点(格林威治时间02：00)，1月份布伦特/迪拜原油期货价格上涨至3.61美元/桶，而周三晚间的评估为3.22美元/桶。
不过，普氏本周的调查者预计，对与迪拜相关的高硫原油的需求将逐月保持稳定，尽管部分中硫级原油的价差可能从8月份的溢价，转为9月份现货交易的折价。
阿布扎比国家石油公司(Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) 8月份公布官方售价（OSPs）后，一名北亚原油交易员周三表示:“Upper Zakum(本月)可能会折价交易。”
ADNOC将8月Upper Zakum原油的OSP设定为每桶61.10美元，相当于每桶1.99美元的溢价，较7月上涨14美分。
根据Upper Zakum的当前价值，迪拜11月现货周三估值为1.47美元/桶。相比之下，8月份迪拜近月现货较同期迪拜期货的平均价格为1.75美元/桶。
一位驻新加坡的原油交易员表示：“(目前)Upper Zakum的价格已经低于OSPs。”
预计11月装载的中东含硫原油现货交易将于下周启动。此前，炼油商评估了最新一轮OSPs，以确定其月度需求。
邹勤 摘译自 普氏能源资讯
原文如下:
Brent/Dubai EFS continues climb to 3-month high
The spread between ICE Brent futures and Dubai crude futures trekked upward Thursday morning in Asia, as crude quality spreads began catching up to plummeting fuel oil cracks ahead of January 2020 deadline for low sulfur maritime fuel.
The Brent/Dubai Exchange of Futures for swaps was notionally pegged at $3.52/b, at 10 am in Singapore (0200 GMT) Thursday. This was up from the $3.34/b assessed at 4:30 pm in Singapore (0830 GMT) Wednesday.
The EFS touched fresh highs last seen three months prior, according to S&P Global Platts data. The front-month Brent/Dubai spread was last assessed higher at $3.58/b on June 7.
The premiums for low sulfur crude grades over higher sulfur alternatives are expected to rise as trading rolls over into January 2020, when the International Maritime Organization's low sulfur shipping fuel cap takes effect.
The divergence of the low/high sulfur quality spreads in crude was preceded by plummeting margins for high sulfur fuel oil seen in August. The Singapore FOB 380 high sulfur fuel oil spread to Dubai futures averaged minus $10.24/b over August, compared to minus $3.55/b in July, Platts data showed.
The Brent/Dubai EFS spreads trading out to two months forward also widened in tandem, with the December Brent/Dubai spread notionally assessed at $3.41/b Thursday morning, compared to $3.24/b Wednesday evening.
The January Brent/Dubai EFS rose to $3.61/b as of 10 am Thursday in Singapore (0200 GMT), compared to its assessed level at $3.22/b Wednesday evening.
However, crude market participants surveyed by Platts this week expected demand for Dubai-linked high sulfur crudes to remain steady month on month, although price differentials for some medium sour grades could flip from premiums seen over August to discounts in spot trading over September.
"Upper Zakum [could trade] in discount [this month]," a North Asian crude trader said Wednesday, following the release of August official selling prices from Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.
ADNOC set the OSP for Upper Zakum crude loaded in August at $61.10/b, equivalent to a premium of $1.99/b against Dubai or up 14 cents/b from July.
Reflecting Upper Zakum's current value, November cash Dubai was assessed at $1.47/b over November Dubai futures on Wednesday. In comparison, front-month cash Dubai over the same-month Dubai futures averaged at $1.75/b over the whole of August.
"[Current] price [for Upper Zakum is] already lower than OSP. It makes sense if it matches," a Singapore-based crude trader said.
Spot trading for November-loading cargoes of Middle East sour crude is expected to kick off next week, after refiners have evaluated the latest round of OSPs to determine their monthly requirements.
