据Oil & Gas Journal网站7月24日消息 评级机构穆迪对全球勘探与生产业务的最新展望认为将趋于稳定，该展望反映了穆迪对未来12-18个月该行业基本经营状况的预期。

稳定的前景预测反映了这样一种观点：即到2020年该行业将几乎不会产生盈利增长。石油价格波动、天然气价格疲软、资本投资受限、股东压力、全球经济放缓和持续的供应增长都会对盈利构成风险。尽管产量持续增长、北美主要产油盆地的基础差收窄、部分地区的石油价格上涨、边缘保护和来自几个国家的限制供应将提供一些支撑。

如果预计到2020年底盈利将下降5%或更大，那么穆迪公司的预测前景将出现下滑。如果预计增长5%或更大，则勘探与生产业务将呈增长趋势。

王磊 摘译自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

Moody’s: Outlook stable for global E&P growth

Moody’s latest outlook for the global exploration and production business—which reflects its expectations for the fundamental bu

The stable outlook reflects a view that the industry will generate little to no earnings growth through 2020. Volatile oil prices and weak natural gas prices, restrained capital investments, shareholder pressures, a slowing global economy, and persistent supply growth all pose risks to earnings, although continued volume growth, narrower basis differentials in key North American producing basins, partial hedge protection, and restricted supply from several countries will lend some support.

Moody’s would change its outlook to negative if a 5% or greater drop in earnings through late 2020 is projected, or to positive if a 5% or greater increase is projected.