据路透社伦敦报道,国际能源机构(IEA)周三在一份报告中指出,即使欧佩克削减了产量,且美国对委内瑞拉和伊朗实施了制裁,今年全球石油市场仍将难以吸收欧佩克以外快速增长的原油供应。
国际能源机构维持了其2019年的需求增长预测,与上一份报告(1月份发布)相比没有变化,仍为每天140万桶。
IEA表示:“油价下跌以及中国和美国石化项目启动是支撑这一趋势的因素,然而,全球经济增长放缓将限制任何上行的空间。”
国际能源机构将其对欧佩克之外的原油供应增长的估计从先前的每天160万桶提高到2019年的每天180万桶。
该机构还下调了对欧佩克原油需求的预测,欧佩克承诺,作为与俄罗斯和阿曼、哈萨克斯坦等其他非欧佩克生产国达成协议的一部分,今年欧佩克原油日产量将减少80万桶。
根据目前的预测,2019年欧佩克原油产量为3070万桶/日,低于国际能源机构1月份最后一次估算的3160万桶/日。
詹晓晶摘自路透社
原文如下:
Global oil supply to swamp demand in 2019 despite output cuts: IEA
The global oil market will struggle this year to absorb fast-growing crude supply from outside OPEC, even with the group’s production cuts and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, the International Energy Agency said in a report on Wednesday.
The IEA left its demand growth forecast for 2019 unchanged from its last report in January at 1.4 million barrels per day.
“It is supported by lower prices and the start-up of petrochemical projects in China and the U.S. Slowing economic growth will, however, limit any upside,” the agency said.
The IEA raised its estimate of growth in crude supply from outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to 1.8 million bpd in 2019, from 1.6 million bpd previously.
The agency also lowered its forecast for demand for OPEC crude, production of which the group has pledged to cut by 800,000 bpd this year as part of an agreement with Russia and other non-OPEC producers such as Oman and Kazakhstan.
The “call” on OPEC crude is now forecast at 30.7 million bpd in 2019, down from the IEA’s last estimate of 31.6 million bpd in January.