据今日油价8月26日报道，就在几年前，卡塔尔还是全球LNG出口领域无可争议的领导者。但在过去10年中，澳大利亚LNG产能建设的大浪潮，以及美国的一系列出口项目，已开始改变这个最热门大宗商品市场之一的供应格局。
过去一年，澳大利亚的LNG月出口量曾两次超过卡塔尔。自2012年以来，澳大利亚第一波LNG设施的最后一个项目于两个月前开始生产和出口。美国能源信息署(EIA)表示，随着澳大利亚LNG设施的增产和出口，并达到满负荷运转，澳大利亚明年的LNG出口量将继续超过卡塔尔。
澳大利亚将成为下一个最大的LNG出口国，但由于卡塔尔和美国都计划在未来五年内大幅扩大LNG出口能力，澳大利亚可能在短期内保持这一地位。澳大利亚上一个LNG产能建设项目——壳牌的Prelude项目，于今年6月开始输送天然气。
随着项目的推进和出口的增加，澳大利亚将成为世界上最大的LNG出口国。EIA表示，它的出口能力已经超过卡塔尔。
卡塔尔方面并没有坐以待毙，该国已经宣布，计划将其LNG产能提高43%，从现在的每年7700万吨增加到每年1.1亿吨。新的出口能力包括将于2024年完成的扩建项目。
卡塔尔和澳大利亚将争夺增长最快的LNG市场——中国的份额。如果国际贸易紧张局势持续，美国出口设施的大规模扩张可能会错失在中国的机会。不过，EIA上个月表示，美国已经批准了几个LNG项目，到2025年，美国将超过卡塔尔和澳大利亚，成为世界上最大的LNG出口国。
今年，美国超过马来西亚，成为世界第三大LNG出口国。EIA估计，2019年和2020年，美国预计仍将是全球第三大LNG出口国，仅次于澳大利亚和卡塔尔。
国际能源署(IEA)预测，到2024年，美国将超过澳大利亚，成为全球最大的LNG出口国。国际能源署在其《2019年天然气报告》中表示，到2022年，澳大利亚将超过卡塔尔。
澳大利亚政府在2019年6月的《资源与能源季刊》(Resources and Energy Quarterly)中表示，从短期来看，澳大利亚和卡塔尔在2019年前5个月继续争夺全球最大LNG出口国的头衔。
政府的报告称，因卡塔尔部分设施的维护导致出口下降，澳大利亚在4月份领先，但卡塔尔5月小幅超过澳大利亚。报告指出，澳大利亚和卡塔尔将在2019年争夺全球最大LNG出口国的竞争中并驾齐驱。
澳大利亚在某种程度上将成为最大的LNG出口国，但只会持续几年。澳大利亚政府今年6月表示，随着两国新项目的投产，预计在本世纪20年代中期，澳大利亚将被卡塔尔和美国超越，成为全球最大的LNG出口国。
未来5年，全球将出现一波新的LNG项目浪潮，以满足亚洲市场(尤其是中国)日益增长的需求。中国现在是、将来也将是需求增长的关键驱动力，全球最大的LNG出口国将在关键需求市场争夺市场份额。澳大利亚、卡塔尔和美国将为争夺最大的LNG出口国桂冠展开激烈竞争。
洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Qatar Could Lose Spot As World’s Top LNG Exporter
Just a few years ago, Qatar was the world’s undisputed leader in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. But a major wave of LNG capacity construction in Australia over the past decade and a slew of export projects in the United States have started to reshuffle the supply picture in one of the hottest commodity markets.
Over the past year, on two occasions Australia exported more LNG than Qatar on a monthly basis. The last project of the first wave of Australia’s LNG facilities since 2012 began production and exports two months ago. As the LNG facilities in Australia ramp up production and exports and reach full capacity, Australia will consistently export more LNG than Qatar within the next year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says.
Australia will be the next top LNG exporter, but it is likely to retain that title for a brief period of time as both Qatar and the United States plan major expansions in their LNG export capacities over the next five years.
Australia’s last project of the first wave of LNG capacity construction, Shell’s Prelude, started shipping gas in June this year.
As the project ramps up and exports increase, Australia will be the number-one exporter of LNG in the world. It has already outpaced Qatar in terms of export capacity, the EIA says.
Qatar, for its part, is not sitting idle—it has announced plans to increase its LNG production capacity by 43 percent—from 77 million tons annually now to 110 million tons a year. The new export capacity includes expansion projects set to be completed in 2024.
Qatar and Australia will be competing for grabbing shares on the fastest-growing LNG market, China. The United States, with its major expansion of export facilities, may miss opportunities in China if the U.S.-China trade war protracts.
Yet, there are several LNG projects in the U.S. that have already been approved, which would make America have the world’s largest LNG export capacity, surpassing both Qatar and Australia, by 2025, the EIA said last month.
This year, the United States became the world’s third-largest LNG exporter, surpassing Malaysia. The U.S. is expected to remain the third-largest LNG exporter in the world, behind Australia and Qatar, in 2019 and 2020, the EIA estimates.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that the United States will surpass Australia as the world’s leading LNG exporter by 2024. Australia, for its part, will have surpassed Qatar by 2022, the IEA said in its Gas 2019 report.
In the shorter-term, “Australia and Qatar continued to jostle for the title of the world’s largest LNG exporter over the first five months of 2019,” Australia’s government said in its Resources and Energy Quarterly in June 2019.
Australia took the lead in April as Qatar’s exports declined due to maintenance at some facilities, but Qatar edged back past Australia in May, the government’s report said, noting that Australia and Qatar will be neck and neck in the race for the world’s top LNG exporter in 2019.
Australia will be at some point the largest LNG exporter, but for just a few years.
“During the mid-2020s, Australia is expected to be surpassed as the world’s largest LNG exporter by both Qatar and the US, as new projects in both countries come online,” the Australian government said in June.
A new global wave of LNG projects is coming over the next five years, geared to meet growing demand in the Asian market, in China in particular. China is and will be the key driver of demand growth and the world’s top LNG exporters will be vying for market share on the key demand markets. Australia, Qatar, and the United States are in for a tense competition for the largest LNG exporter crown.
