据OGJ12月23日报道称，雷斯塔能源公司预计，随着国际海事组织(IMO) 2020年船用燃料新规的初步效果逐渐消失，需求担忧重新蔓延至市场，今年晚些时候石油市场平衡前景将进一步滑向供过于求。该组织预测，在接下来的三个季度，市场对欧佩克的期望日产量为2890万桶。
由14个国家组成的欧佩克、俄罗斯和其他一些欧佩克 +联盟成员国于2019年12月6日达成协议，深化该组织的石油减产目标，在 2020年1月1日119.5万桶/日的基础上，多减产 50万桶/日，至169.5万桶/日。
石油供应分析显示。尽管欧佩克+联盟出台了最新的政策，但石油供应仍处于过剩状态，因此有必要进一步减产。雷斯塔能源公司发现，欧佩克在2020年第一季度的平均日产量可能为2930万桶，而市场对欧佩克的期望日产量为2900万桶。
“只要欧佩克恪守生产承诺，沙特阿拉伯如承诺的那样再自愿削减40万桶日产量，欧佩克的潜在产量目标将为2920万桶/天，这还是超出了我们对欧佩克的要求，因此可能导致库存积压和油价下跌的问题，” Tonhaugen说。
徐蕾 摘译自 OGJ
原文如下：
Rystad: OPEC needs to do more in 2020
Rystad Energy expects the oil market balance outlook to slip further toward oversupply later in the year, after the initial effect of the new IMO 2020 marine fuel regulations wears off and demand fears creep back into the market. It forecasts an average call-on-OPEC of 28.9 million b/d for the subsequent three quarters.
The 14-country Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) bloc, Russia, and a host of other OPEC+ countries agreed Dec. 6, 2019, to deepen the group’s target oil-production cuts by just more than 500,000 b/d, to 1.699 million b/d from 1.195 million b/d effective Jan. 1, 2020.
The conclusion that deeper cuts are needed is driven by supply analysis pointing to a surplus of oil despite the most recent OPEC+ policy. Rystad found that OPEC production is likely to average 29.3 million b/d for first-quarter 2020, compared with its predicted call-on-OPEC of 29.0 million b/d.
“As long as OPEC sticks to production pledges and Saudi Arabia cuts an additional voluntary 400,000 barrels as promised, the implied production target for OPEC is 29.2 million bpd – above our call-on-OPEC and thus likely to result in stock builds and downward pressure on oil prices,” says Tonhaugen.
