普氏能源资讯伦敦1月17日消息 欧佩克周四表示，12月已将原油日产量较上月削减75万桶左右，但这仅为避免供应过剩所需减产水平的一半左右。

据欧佩克月度石油市场报告显示，12月该组织14个成员国的日产量为3158万桶，低于11月的3233万桶。卡塔尔在2018年底结束了成员国身份，因此不再包括卡塔尔。

但欧佩克估计，2019年上半年全球原油平均需求将达到3088万桶/日，这意味着如果该组织希望避免石油库存增加，将需要进一步削减约70万桶/日。

过去两年欧佩克及其盟友，包括全球最大的石油生产国俄罗斯，一直积极针对经合组织的全球库存，制定了产量配额，将库存降至五年平均水平。

但沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和其他国家在2018年下半年的石油产量激增已导致石油库存超过这一基准，促使欧佩克/非欧佩克24国联盟就新一轮减产达成一致，减产将持续到2019年上半年。

根据协议，欧佩克同意承担约80万桶/日的减产，而俄罗斯和其他9个非欧佩克成员国承诺减产40万桶/日。

但欧佩克的分析显示，这些减产可能还不够，冬季的炼油厂扭亏为盈将增加挑战。

然而，沙特能源部长Khalid al-Falih本周早些时候表示，他相信在六个月的减产协议期内，库存将恢复到五年平均水平，他称之为“我们所有人都要关注的关键指标”。

吴慧丹 摘译自 普氏能源资讯

原文如下：

OPEC analysis shows major oil output cuts still needed to prevent stock build

OPEC said Thursday it had already slashed its crude oil output by some 750,000 b/d month on month in December, but that is only about halfway to the level of cuts needed to avoid a supply glut.

OPEC's 14 members -- which no longer include Qatar, as it terminated its membership at the end of 2018-- pumped 31.58 million b/d in December, down from 32.33 million b/d in November, according to the organization's Monthly Oil Market Report.

But OPEC has estimated that global demand for its crude will average 30.88 million b/d in the first half of 2019, meaning the bloc will need to cut some 700,000 b/d more if it wants to avoid a build-up of oil inventories.

OPEC and its allies, including top global oil producer Russia, have aggressively targeted OECD global inventories over the last two years, instituting output quotas to bring stocks down to the five-year average.

But a production surge in Saudi Arabia, Russia and other countries in the second half of 2018 has caused inventories to rise above that benchmark, prompting the 24-country OPEC/non-OPEC coalition to agree on another round of output cuts that is to last the first six months of 2019.

Under the deal, OPEC agreed to shoulder some 800,000 b/d of the cuts, while Russia and the nine other non-OPEC partners committed to cut 400,000 b/d.

But OPEC's analysis shows those cuts may not be enough. Refinery turnarounds in the winter will add to the challenge.

However, Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih earlier this week said he was confident inventories would return to the five-year average -- which he called "the key metric for all of us to watch" -- within the six-month cut agreement.