据今日油价1月15日报道，沙特阿拉伯石油部长Khalid al-Falih在本周于阿布扎比举行的未来可持续发展峰会上表示，全球经济衰退是有可能的，但不会对经济产生严重影响。

“通过监管体系，全球经济已经具备了很大的韧性。公司和政府已经建立了更好的财政状况,” ”Al-Falih援引标准普尔全球普氏网说,“我不排除会出现周期性衰退，而且迟早会有一次，但我不认为这是对全球经济的一次大冲击，也不认为它会蔓延到全球经济中。”

过去几个月来，有关世界经济今年可能陷入衰退的讨论一直在加剧，特别是对美国和德国的猜测。这导致美国银行美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)发布了最新的油价预测，如果经济衰退的情况出现，布伦特原油价格可能跌至每桶35美元。

然而，Al-Falih并不担心。他指出，今年石油需求将保持强劲，任何经济放缓甚至衰退的负面影响都将是短暂的。这位官员还表示，如果有必要，欧佩克准备进一步减产，以确保全球经济不会对油价产生更大影响。

他说:“在供应方面，如果需求受到影响，我们会保持警惕，采取适当的应对措施。”“你看欧佩克+集团，我们的总产量接近5200万桶。调整5%似乎不是一个挑战。”

这位官员告诉媒体，他并不担心可再生能源侵占石油领域，他指出，应对气候变化的努力需要集中在“控制碳排放，而不是推动一种能源凌驾于另一种能源之上”。他补充说，可再生能源只对煤炭构成威胁，它们将在发电领域取代煤炭，但不会对石油构成威胁。

孔丽炜 摘译自今日油价

原文如下：

A global recession is a possibility but it will hardly have a serious effect on the economy, Saudi Arabia’s top oil man, Khalid al-Falih, said at the Future Sustainability Summit taking place this week in Abu Dhabi.

"A lot of resilience has been built into the global economy through regulatory systems. Companies and governments have built better fiscal positions," Al-Falih said as quoted by S&P Global Platts, adding "I'm not ruling out a cyclical recession, and there will be one sooner or later, but I don't see it as a big shock to the global economy and I don't see it spilling over into the global economy."

Talk about the possibility of the world’s economy slipping into a recession this year has been intensifying over the last couple of months, with speculation about the United States and Germany in particular. This led Bank of America Merrill Lynch to issue an updated forecast for oil prices, noting that Brent could slide down to US$35 a barrel if the recession scenario materialized.

Al-Falih, however, is not worried. He noted that oil demand will remain robust this year and that any negative impact of an economic slowdown or even recession would be short-lived. The official also said OPEC is ready to deepen its production cuts should the need arise, to make sure whatever happens to the global economy does not result in a stronger effect on oil prices.

"On the supply side, we are vigilant to take appropriate response if there is an impact on demand," he said. "If you look at the OPEC+ group, our combined production is close to 52 million. Adjusting by 5% does not appear to be a challenge."

The official told media he was not worried about renewables encroaching on oil territory, noting that efforts to tackle climate change needed to be focused on “managing carbon emissions, not promoting one energy source over another." He added that renewables were only a threat to coal, which they would displace in power generation, but not to oil.