全球LNG市场在2019年将达到204亿立方米

据海事新闻11月25日消息称，澳大利亚澳新银行(ANZ bank)表示，由于全球产量飙升和合同条件苛刻，今年全球LNG市场可能供过于求，达到204亿立方米，比需求多出约4%。

澳新银行预计，今年全球LNG供应将增加3200万吨，至3.71亿吨，而需求仅可能增加1700万吨。

该银行分析师Daniy Hynes和Soni Kumari在一份报告中表示：“随着整个亚洲和北美的产能扩张使市场不堪重负，LNG市场遇到了障碍。”

“这意味着，每年约有1500万吨(204亿立方米)的LNG供应难以找到买家，这是我们今年看到的LNG现货价格下行压力背后的一个重要原因。”

多数LNG供应协议的性质，加剧了供应过剩。该银行表示约95%的LNG是根据合同销售的，其中约有一半与石油挂钩。

“这样的交易量可能会吸引10美元/百万英热，远远高于当前的现货价格。这些价格将使大多数出口商保持现金流为正。”

分析师表示，这是为了阻止供应商限制产量，即便是在全球天然气市场饱和、库存高企的情况下。

澳新银行认为这种趋势将持续到明年。一方面，买家一直在利用“合约容忍度”来限制他们的购买，迫使生产商向现货市场出售过剩的产量。

一些公司也将货物推迟到明年，但没有达到迫使供应商取消业务的规模。

此外，对于全球最大LNG买家所在的亚洲将迎来暖冬的预测，为需求复苏提供了“暗淡”前景。

“目前的天气预报显示，北亚的冬天比正常情况温和。最近几周，东京和首尔的‘升温天数’都低于10年平均水平。”

该行认为，如果LNG相对于当地Henry Hub天然气价格的溢价在较长时期内过低，美国仍有可能缩减今年激增至欧洲的供应量。

分析师表示，明年可能出台更严格的船舶排放规定，这为增加需求提供了一些可能，但仅在2020年下半年。

曹海斌 摘译自 海事新闻

原文如下：

LNG market to be 20.4bcm long in 2019

The world’s LNG market is likely to be oversupplied this year by 20.4bcm – around 4% more than demand – due to surging global output and rigid contract conditions, Australia’s ANZ bank said.

ANZ expected global LNG supplies to rise 32m tonnes to 371m tonnes this year, while demand was only likely to rise by 17m tonnes.

“The LNG market has hit a roadblock as capacity expansions throughout Asia and North America overwhelm the market,” said the bank’s analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari in a note.

“That has seen about 15mt [20.4bcm] a year of supply struggle to find a home, a big reason behind the downward pressure on spot LNG prices we have seen this year.”

The glut has been compounded by the nature of most LNG supply deals. Around 95% of LNG is sold under contracts, with around half indexed against oil, the bank said.

“Such volumes could be attracting USD10/mmbtu, well above the current spot price. These prices would keep most exporters cash-flow positive.”

This was acting to discourage suppliers from curbing output, even in the face of globally saturated gas markets and high inventories, the analysts said.

ANZ saw the trend continuing well into next year. On the one hand, buyers have been making use of “contract tolerance” to limit their purchases, forcing producers to sell excess volumes into the spot market.

Some have also deferred cargoes into next year, yet not at a scale that would force suppliers to cancel operations.

In addition, forecasts of a mild winter in Asia – home to the world’s biggest LNG buyers – provided a “bleak” outlook for a resurgence in demand.

“Current weather forecasts suggest a milder than normal winter in North Asia. Tokyo and Seoul have all seen the number of ‘heating degree’ days dip below the 10-year average in recent weeks.”

The bank saw the possibility the US may yet scale back deliveries – which have surged to Europe this year – if LNG fetches too little premium against the local Henry Hub gas price for an extended period.

The prospect of tighter shipping emissions rules kicking in next year provided some potential for added demand, but only over the latter half of 2020, the analysts said.