船用低硫燃油新规给亚洲炼油企业带来利润提振

据彭博社11月13日报道，随着船舶燃料规则的调整，明年柴油需求将大幅增长，预计将提振亚洲炼油商的利润率。目前，亚洲炼油商的利润率正徘徊在10多年来最低的季节性水平。

咨询公司Wood Mackenzie的数据显示，随着亚洲炼油利润率提高3.5美元，至每桶4美元，原油加工商预计2020年，有望成为“市场活跃”的一年。IHS Markit 负责能源咨询的副总裁Victor Shum表示，自3月1日起，禁止无洗涤器船舶运输高硫燃料油的规定生效后，4月份轻质和重质燃料的生产回报率可能会出现显著差异。

由于亚洲增加的大量新石油加工工厂加剧了燃料的供应过剩，加上运费飙升以及持续的贸易紧张局势削弱了需求，该地区炼油商正在努力度过自2008年以来的最低利润时期。国际海事组织(IMO) 2020年船舶燃料规则将于明年1月1日生效，在此之前，预计利润率将有所回升，但这一趋势并没有像预期的那样迅速显现。

伍德麦肯兹(Wood Mackenzie)下游产业研究主管苏尚特?古普塔(Sushant Gupta)在新加坡的一次媒体吹风会上表示，船主们打算等待到最后一刻才能改用更清洁的船舶燃料。他预计，到12月将会出现“大量变动”。他表示，明年对炼油企业来说将是“积极活跃”的一年，汽油将是主要的推动因素。

此外，老旧的油轮可以从即将出台的船舶燃料规定中获得新的机遇。

古普塔指出，目前至少有700万至800万吨低硫燃料存放在新加坡附近的陆上和海上设施中，其中40%储存在海上。他表示，虽然有些燃料将用作燃料补给，但也有一部分将用于冲洗船舶的油箱，以容纳更清洁的燃料。

他补充道，虽然炼油企业的利润将在2020年得到提振，但由于全球产能的增加，到2023年或2024年，炼油企业的利润率预计将继续下滑。

洪伟立 摘译自 彭博社

原文如下：

New Shipping-Fuel Rules Could Boost Struggling Asian Oil Refiners

A surge in diesel demand next year following a shake-up to ship-fuel rules is forecast to boost Asian refiner profit margins, which are languishing at the lowest seasonal level in more than a decade.

Processors are expected to have a “very positive” year in 2020 as refining margins for complex plants in Asia increase by $3.50 to $4 a barrel, according to consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. Returns from producing light and heavy fuels may diverge significantly in April after regulations stopping ships without scrubbers from carrying high-sulfur fuel oil take effect on March 1, said Victor Shum, vice president of energy consulting at IHS Markit Ltd.

Asian refiners are grappling with the lowest profits for this time of the year since at least 2008 as a slew of new plants in the region add to a fuel glut, while a spike in freight rates and the ongoing trade war dent demand. An expected pick-up in margins ahead of IMO 2020 ship-fuel rules that take effect Jan. 1 hasn’t materialized as quickly as expected.

Vessel owners are waiting until the last moment to convert to using cleaner ship fuel, Sushant Gupta, downstream research director at Wood Mackenzie, said at a media briefing in Singapore, predicting there would be “a lot of movement” in December. Next year will be “positive” for refiners and “gasoil will be the main driver,” he said.

See also: Aging Oil Tankers Get a Lifeline From Looming Ship-Fuel Rules

At least 7 million to 8 million tons of less-sulfurous fuel is currently sitting in onshore and offshore facilities at or near Singapore, with 40% in floating storage, according to Gupta. While some will be used for bunkering, a portion will be utilized to flush the tanks of vessels to accommodate the less-pollutive fuel, he said.

While refiners will see a boost in 2020, profit margins are expected to resume declines the following year through 2023 or 2024 due to global capacity additions, Gupta said.