中国石化新闻网讯 据世界管道6月28日报道，雷斯塔能源公司对挪威管道运营商Gassco提出的出口该国北极天然气资源的方案进行了能源成本分析，结果显示，与提高现有哈默菲斯特液化天然气(LNG)厂的产能相比，扩大挪威管道基础设施是一个更可行的解决方案。然而，至少需要400亿立方米新发现的额外资源来证明这一方案的合理性。

目前哈默菲斯特LNG终端的LNG出口能力只有74亿立方米/年，因为该地区的天然气产量将超过出口能力，预计2026年将达到极限。这个终端是为了适应上世纪80年代发现的天然气资源而建造的，但自那以后新发现的天然气不断增加。Rystad能源估计，巴伦支海剩余的已探明天然气资源约为900亿立方米。

如果挪威在该地区的天然气资源要进一步开发，有两个主要选择:要么修建一条新的天然气管道，连接挪威海现有基础设施；要么增加哈默菲斯特厂的液化天然气产能。如果不增加出口能力的限制，项目就必须分阶段进行，以便在现有的情况下充分利用管道产能。

雷斯塔能源公司分析师戴恩?英格利斯表示：“进一步开发液化天然气的可能性似乎越来越大。但高昂的项目成本、复杂的技术解决方案和恶劣的环境条件让人欢喜让人愁。当经济效益较低时，更简单的管道解决方案最有可能是正确的。”

邹勤 摘译自 世界管道

原文如下：

Rystad Energy: Gassco’s pipeline option far cheaper than LNG alternative

A Rystad Energy cost analysis of the Norwegian pipeline operator Gassco’s proposed options to export the country’s Arctic natural gas resources, shows that the expansion of Norway’s pipeline infrastructure is a more viable solution compared to boosting the capacity of the existing Hammerfest liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant. However, at least 40 billion m3 of additional resources from new discoveries would be needed in order to justify such an initiative.

At present, the Hammerfest LNG terminal only has 7.4 billion m3/y of LNG export capacity, and this limit is expected to be reached in 2026 as gas production in the region will exceed export capacity. The terminal was built to accommodate the gas discoveries of the 1980s, but since then new discoveries have added up. Rystad Energy estimates the remaining discovered natural gas resources in the Barents Sea at around 90 billion m3.

If Norway’s gas resources in the Barents are to be further developed and exploited, there are two main options to reach markets: either build a major new gas pipeline as a link to existing infrastructure in the Norwegian Sea or increase LNG capacity at Hammerfest. If export capacity limits are not increased, projects will have to be phased so as to fill pipeline capacity as it becomes available, destroying substantial value.

“The cards appear to be increasingly stacked against further development of LNG. High project costs, technically complex solutions and harsh environment conditions don’t make for happy bedfellows even when the opportunity is great. When the economics are more marginal, the simpler pipeline solution is most likely the right one,” says Dane Inglis, analyst at Rystad Energy.