据彭博社9月24日华盛顿报道，美国能源信息署在其《2019年国际能源展望》中预测，2018年至2050年间，世界能源消耗将增长近50%。EIA预测，大部分增长将来自能源消费受强劲经济增长驱动的地区，特别是非经合组织的亚洲地区。环境影响评估对世界能源市场的年度长期评估包括一个参考案例和四个核心辅助案例，它们在每种情况下对预测使用不同的假设。
“2018年，亚洲的能源消耗高于任何其他地区，我们预计，2018年至2050年间，亚洲的能源消耗将几乎翻一番，使亚洲成为世界上能源消耗最大、增长最快的地区，”环境影响评估署署长琳达卡普亚诺(Linda Capuano)表示。亚洲能源消费的这一长期趋势对石油、天然气和其他燃料的开采、提炼和运输产生了巨大影响
IEO2019包含世界16个地区的能源消耗预测。《2019年国际能源展望》中对美国的预测与《2019年年度能源展望》中发布的预测一致。环境影响评价并不意味着《2019年国际环境展望》是对未来最有可能的预测，而是评估政策或技术变化影响的基线。其他四个案例显示了改变其他关键模型假设的影响。
孙子舒 编译自 彭博社
原文如下，
EIA projects strong Asian growth drives a 50% increase in global energy usage by 2050
In its International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019), the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that world energy consumption will grow by nearly 50% between 2018 and 2050. EIA projects most of this growth will come from regions where the consumption of energy is driven by strong economic growth, particularly in non-OECD Asia. EIA’s annual long-term assessment of world energy markets includes a Reference case and four core side cases, which use different assumptions for the projections in each case.
“Energy consumption was greater in Asia than in any other region in 2018, and we project that consumption will almost double between 2018 and 2050, making Asia both the largest and fastest-growing region in the world for energy consumption,” according to Linda Capuano, EIA administrator. “This long-term trend of Asian energy consumption to support growing economies strongly influences the extraction, refining, and transport of oil, natural gas, and other fuels.”
IEO2019 contains energy consumption projections for 16 regions of the world. Projections for the United States in IEO2019 are consistent with those released in the Annual Energy Outlook 2019. EIA does not intend that the IEO2019 Reference is the most probable prediction of the future, but rather it is a baseline for estimating the effects of policy or technology changes. The other four cases show the effects of changing other key model assumptions.
