据普氏能源资讯9月9日报道，亚洲轻油终端市场本周将呈现冬季固有的上涨趋势，由于基本面改善，亚洲液化石油气价格将从两年来的低点上涨，而汽油价格继续受到美国纽约商品交易所RBOB期货走低的压力。
预计亚洲石脑油本周将在区间内波动，因为在9月9-11日于新加坡举行的亚太石油会议召开之前，多数买家已在上周末完成了10月份的现货需求。
随着北亚冬季的临近，由于供应充足和原油期货价格较低，亚洲液化石油气价格预计将在两年来的低点附近引发潜在需求，液化石油气需求将因低价而上升。
此外，消息人士称，印度和印尼家庭对液化石油气的需求也很旺盛。过去一周，印度斯坦石油公司(Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd.)和印度石油公司(Indian Oil Corp.)的现货需求重新出现，在第四季度的节日到来之前，大选前的高库存开始缓解。
消息人士称，印尼国家石油公司(Pertamina)已购买了两批9月份交货的现货，目前正在寻找另一份9月份的货物，加上地缘政治因素导致伊朗(包括混合货物)出口不足，亚洲丁烷的进口量将继续减少。
丁烷的供应比丙烷少，因此，丁烷的溢价扩大到每公吨14至15美元。
消息人士称，与液化石油气形成对比的是，尽管亚洲地区基本面依然坚挺，但该地区的汽油厂商仍面临压力。这压力来自美国纽约商品交易所RBOB期货走弱——由于9月中旬即将出台的冬季汽油规格调整，该期货价格已开始走低。
由于较高的RVP限制，冬季汽油通常比夏季汽油便宜，因此美国RBOB/Brent价差也会随着较低的价格一同下降。尽管如此，消息人士称，亚洲市场需求迅速增加，预计将有助于防止汽油精炼利润率暴跌。因印度和印尼的购买需求，台湾、印尼、印度和日本炼油厂9-10月将出现重大转机。
新加坡离岸价(FOB Singapore) 92 RON汽油兑近月洲际交易所(ICE)布伦特(Brent)原油期货在上周五亚洲市场收盘时回升至5.71美元/桶，仍明显低于8月份6.55美元/桶的平均水平。
消息人士称，亚洲石脑油市场本周总体持稳，10月大部分需求将得到满足。消息人士补充称，在本周的APPEC会议召开之前，就出现了抢购10月下半年交货现货的热潮。
交易的突然激增甚至给黯淡的基本面注入活力，导致实体经济曲线稳固。上周五，一线和三线交易周期之间的价差转为正价差，为每吨1.75美元，结束了8月30日至9月3日之间短暂的连续逆价差。
普氏能源资讯的数据显示，10月下半月运往韩国的石蜡基石脑油现货价差，周五收盘时亦升至 -75美分/吨，至普氏日本石脑油现货价差均值，较一周前的 -2.25美元/吨有大幅上涨。
王佳晶 摘译自 普氏能源资讯
原文如下：
Asian light ends market prepares for winter; LPG set to rise from 2-year lows
The Asian light ends market this week will take on further characteristics inherent to the winter period, with Asian LPG prices set to rise from two-year lows on improving fundamentals while gasoline continues to be pressured by lower US NYMEX RBOB futures.
Asian naphtha is expected to be rangebound this week as most buyers had covered their spot requirements for October at the tail end of last week, ahead of the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore over September 9-11.
Asian LPG prices around two-year lows amid ample supply and low crude oil futures are expected to stir latent demand as winter nears in North Asia.
In addition, demand for LPG from the household sectors in India and Indonesia was also healthy, sources said. Spot Indian demand re-emerged over the past week from state-run Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd. and Indian Oil Corp., as high pre-election inventory started to ease, and ahead of the festive season in the fourth quarter.
In Indonesia, state-owned Pertamina was seeking another parcel for September, after already purchasing two spot cargoes for September delivery, sources said.
Coupled with a lack of exports from Iran -- which comprise mixed cargoes -- due to US sanctions, Asia will continue to receive less butane, sources added.
The premium for butane, which is shorter in supply than propane, as a result widened to about $14-$15/mt.
In contrast to LPG, the Asian gasoline complex will likely remain pressured even as regional fundamentals stay firm, sources said. The pressure comes from weaker US RBOB NYMEX futures, which have started to trend lower due to the upcoming winter gasoline specification changes in mid-September.
As winter-grade gasoline is generally cheaper than summer-grade gasoline due to higher RVP limits, US RBOB/Brent cracks similarly fall in tandem with the lower price.
Still, prompt demand in Asia is expected to help prevent a collapse in gasoline refining margins, sources said, with buying interest from India and Indonesia, and due to heavy refinery turnarounds in Taiwan, Indonesia, India and Japan from September-October.
The FOB Singapore 92 RON gasoline crack against front-month ICE Brent crude futures, while recovering to $5.71/b at the Asian close Friday, still stood noticeably lower than the August average of $6.55/b.
The Asian naphtha market is expected to be generally quiet this week with most October requirements covered, sources said. The rush to purchase second-half October delivery spot cargoes came ahead of this week's APPEC conference, sources added.
The sudden surge in buying activities even lent strength to lackluster fundamentals, resulting in the firming of the physical curve.
The spread between the first-line and third-line trading cycles flipped to a backwardation of plus $1.75/mt on Friday, ending the brief contango that lasted between August 30-September 3.
Spot paraffinic naphtha cargo cash differentials for delivery into South Korea over second-half October also rose in tandem to minus 75 cents/mt to Mean of Platts Japan naphtha physical at Friday's close, a sharp improvement against minus $2.25/mt a week ago, Platts data showed.
