据国民报12月24日报道称，海湾国家科威特和沙特阿拉伯签署了一项关于划分两国之间“中立地区”石油产量的初步协议，分析人士表示，此举可能最终将使市场每天多供应50万桶石油。

科威特官方通讯社12月24日证实，两国政府已正式签署该协议，但未提供协议的更多细节。

瑞银（UBS）大宗商品分析师乔瓦尼·斯汤诺沃解释称，自2014年和2015年以来，沙特阿拉伯和科威特中间地带的两个主要油田- Wafra陆上油田和Khafji近海油田就已分别停产，这意味着“增产可能需要一些时间（数月而非数天）”。

在停止生产之前，两国从该地区抽出的原油约为30万桶/日。

“不过，总产能据说约为50万桶/日，”财务数据公司Refinitiv的石油市场分析师伊赫桑·哈克对《国民报》表示。

他指出，该地区生产的石油类型是重质高硫原油，炼油需求复杂，因此相对于该地区的其他原油产品（例如迪拜基准原油），其售价有所折扣。他说，短期内，该区域进入市场的新增供应不会产生重大影响。

在谈到欧佩克和以俄罗斯为首的非欧佩克产油国时他表示：“一开始市场不会感觉到增加10万-20万桶高硫原油所带来的影响，但是一旦其日产量提高到30万 桶时，可能会对欧佩克+来说是一个问题。”欧佩克+联盟自2017年以来一直在减产以支撑油价。

该组织于本月初同意将减产提高至每天210万桶，直到明年3月。俄罗斯能源部长亚历山大·诺瓦克周一发表讲话称减产将持续到“市场需要为止”，这有助于在圣诞节前的交易中支撑油价。

阿联酋时间12月24日下午3点45分，交易最广泛的基准布伦特原油价格上涨28美分，涨幅 0.42％，至每桶66.67美元。西德克萨斯中质原油上涨16美分，至每桶60.68美元。

斯坦诺沃表示：“基于欧佩克+减产协议，中立区的任何增产都很有可能被两国其他油田的减产所补偿；也就是说两国将不会生产更多的石油。” “尽管如此，中立区的油田将进一步增加欧佩克的闲置产能。较高的闲置产能往往会限制石油价格的上涨。”

乌尔·哈克表示，从长远来看，油价将不仅取决于欧佩克+维持的供需平衡，还取决于美国的产出。

他说：“多数分析师预计，到2020年需求增长将达到100万桶/日，低于正常水平。”

因此，他补充称，大多数分析师预计明年油价“相对稳定”在每桶60至70美元之间。

徐蕾 摘译自 国民报

原文如下：

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait agree to restart oil production in neutral zone

The Gulf nations of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have signed a preliminary agreement on dividing up oil production in the neutral zone that sits between the two countries, a move that analysts say could eventually bring a further 500,000 barrels of oil per day into the market.

The two governments formally signed the pact, the official Kuwait News Agency confirmed on Tuesday, without giving further details of the agreement.

Two major oilfields in the neutral zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the onshore Wafra field and the offshore Khafji, have ceased production since 2014 and 2015, respectively, meaning "it will likely take some time [months and not days] to increase production", Giovanni Staunovo, a commodities analyst at UBS explained.

Crude pumped from the zone by the two countries stood at about 300,000 bpd before production was halted.

"However, total production capacity is said to be around 500,000 bpd," Ehsan Ul-Haq, an oil markets analyst with financial data company Refinitiv told The National.

The type of oil produced in the zone is a heavy sour crude, which has complex refining needs and is, therefore, sold at a discount to other crude products in the region, such as the Dubai oil benchmark, he noted. In the short term, there is not likely to be a major impact on additional supply from the zone entering into the market, he said.

"The addition of 100,000-200,000 barrels of heavy sour will not be felt in the beginning but once it starts moving towards 300,000 bpd, it might pose a problem for Opec+," he said, referring to the group of Opec and non-Opec crude producers led by Russia that has been cutting production since 2017 in a bid to support pricing.

The group, earlier this month, agreed to deepen cuts to 2.1 million barrels per day until March next year, although comments from Russian energy minister Alexander Novak on Monday that cuts would remain in place "until the market requires it", helped to support oil prices during pre-Christmas trading.

Brent crude, the most widely-traded benchmark, was up 28 cents, or 0.42 per cent, at $66.67 per barrel at 3.45pm UAE time on Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate was up 16 cents at $60.68 per barrel.

"Due to the Opec+ production cut deal, any increase in the neutral zone will most likely be compensated by lower oil production in other fields in both countries; i.e. both countries will not produce more oil," Mr Staunovo said. "That said, the oilfields in the neutral zone will increase Opec's spare capacity further. Higher spare capacity tends to cap the upside of oil prices."

In the long term, oil prices will depend not only on the supply-demand balance maintained by Opec+ but also by US output, Mr Ul-Haq said.

"Most analysts are expecting demand growth of around 1 million bpd in 2020, which is below normal," he said.

As a result, he added, most analysts are expecting "relatively stable" oil prices next year of between $60 and $70 per barrel.