据路透社12月17日报道称，摩根大通周二上调了对明年油价的预测，因为该投资银行预计欧佩克的减产措施将与新兴市场经济增长的预期有效地相结合。

据估计，明年石油市场将出现每日20万桶的赤字，而不是供过于求。这与9月份的预测形成了鲜明的对比，9月份的估计假设2020年石油市场每天供应过剩60万桶。预计全球石油需求每天将增长100万桶，与9月份的预测相同。

摩根大通对明年布伦特原油基准价格的最新预测为每桶64.50美元，高于先前预测的每桶59美元。到2021年，该行预计油价将跌至每桶61.50美元。

对于美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）基准，摩根大通预计明年将达到每桶60美元。

周二布伦特原油价格上涨1.24％，至每桶66.15美元。这是自9月份沙特阿美基础设施遭受袭击以来的最高价格，该事件使石油市场的日产量减少了500万桶。

WTI也上涨了1.25％，至每桶60.96美元。

高盛最近也上调了明年的油价预测，并指出欧佩克进一步减产将有助于平衡供需关系。根据上周的修正，高盛预计明年布伦特原油均价为每桶63美元，WTI均价为每桶58.50美元。

两周前，摩根大通呼吁欧佩克采取行动，并表示欧佩克会进一步削减产量。

然而，美国产量上升的威胁确实存在，在过去几周中，石油日产量已从年初的1170万桶增加到1290万桶。

徐蕾 摘译自 路透社

原文如下：

JP Morgan Raises 2020 Oil Price Outlook

JP Morgan raised on Tuesday its oil price forecasts for next year, as the investment bank expects OPEC’s production cuts to be effective in conjunction with expectations for better economic growth in emerging markets, Reuters reported.

It is estimating that rather than oversupply, the oil market will be in a deficit next year, by 200,000 bpd. This is in stark contrast to its estimates from September, that assumed a 600,000 bpd oversupply situation for 2020. It is expected a 1 million bpd global demand growth—the same as its September forecast.

JP’s new forecast for the Brent crude oil benchmark is $64.50 per barrel for next year, up from earlier projections of $59 per barrel. For 2021, the bank is expected prices to fall to $61.50.

For the US WTI benchmark, JP Morgan is expecting $60 per barrel next year.

Brent was trading up 1.24% on Tuesday, at $66.15 per barrel. It is the highest price point since the September attacks on Saudi Aramco infrastructure that took over 5 million bpd off the oil markets.

WTI was also trading up, by 1.25%, at $60.96.

Goldman Sachs also recently revised upward its oil price forecast for next year, also citing OPEC’s deeper production cuts that will help to balance supply and demand. Goldman is expecting Brent crude oil to average $63 next year, with WTI averaging $58.50 per barrel, according to its revisions made last week.

Two weeks ago, JP Morgan called it for OPEC, saying it expected bigger OPEC production cuts.

The threat of rising US production, however, is a real one, with production increasing to 12.9 million bpd over the last few weeks, up from 11.7 million bpd at the beginning of the year.