据11月4日New Europe报道，国际能源署(IEA) 10月25日发布的一份报告称，未来20年，海上风力发电将显著扩张，推动能源体系脱碳，减少空气污染，因为风力发电正日益成为电力供应的一部分。

国际能源署执行主任法提赫?比罗尔(Fatih Birol)表示，海上风能目前仅占全球发电的0.3%，但其潜力巨大。他强调，要使海上风能成为清洁能源转型的中坚力量，各国政府和工业界还有大量工作要做。比罗尔在国际能源署报告《2019年海上风能展望》的发布会上指出，到2050年，海上风能将成为欧洲的头号发电来源。

IEA表示，报告发现，到2040年，全球海上风力发电能力可能会增加15倍，累计吸引约1万亿美元的投资。这是由成本下降、政府支持政策和一些显著的技术进步(如更大的涡轮机和浮动地基)推动的。这仅仅是个开始——国际能源署的报告发现，在国家和地区政策的大力支持下，海上风能技术有可能发展得更加强劲。

欧洲是海上风能技术的先驱者，该地区将成为未来风能发展的动力源泉。如今，欧盟的海上风力发电能力接近200亿瓦。按照目前的政策设定，到2040年，这一数字将升至近1.3亿千瓦。但是,如果欧盟达到碳中和目标,海上风电装机容量将跳转到约180千瓦,2040年成为该地区最大的单一电力来源。国际能源署在一份新闻稿中表示,一个更加宏伟的愿景——政策推动海上风电生产的清洁氢需求大幅增长，可能会推动欧洲海上风电产能大幅提升。

国际能源署表示，政府和监管机构可以为海上风电的发展扫清道路，提供长期愿景，鼓励行业和投资者进行开发海上风电项目所需的重大投资，并将其与陆地电网连接起来。这包括谨慎的市场设计、低成本的融资，陆上电网基础设施的开发，以及对于有效整合海上风力发电至关重要的监管。

国际能源署敦促该行业继续快速发展这项技术，使风力涡轮机的规模和发电能力持续增长，从而提升性能和降低成本，使海上风力发电比燃气发电和陆上风力发电更具竞争力。

此外，国际能源署表示，石油和天然气行业的公司拥有巨大的商机来利用离岸项目的专业知识。该机构还表示，一个海上风电项目的建设和维护等终身成本中，约有40%与海上油气行业存在显著的协同效应。这意味着未来20年在欧洲和中国将有4000亿美元或更多的市场机会。

IEA对欧洲的预测实际上是保守的。到2040年将达到130-180吉瓦。但到2030年，将拥有9000万千瓦的电力，这要感谢各国政府自开始制定国家能源和气候计划以来所做的承诺不断增加。欧盟委员会的设想，到2050年风力发电将达230-450吉瓦。

洪伟立 摘译自 New Europe

原文如下：

IEA: Offshore wind to become a $1 trillion industry helping meet EU’s 2050 climate targets

Offshore wind power will expand impressively over the next two decades, boosting efforts to decarbonise energy systems and reduce air pollution as it becomes a growing part of electricity supply, according to an International Energy Agency (IEA) report published on 25 October.

Offshore wind currently provides just 0.3% of global power generation, but its potential is vast, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said, stressing that much work remains to be done by governments and industry for it to become a mainstay of clean energy transitions. Birol said at a launch event of the IEA report, the Offshore Wind Outlook 2019, that offshore wind will be the number one source of power generation in a carbon neutral Europe by 2050.

The IEA said the report finds that global offshore wind capacity may increase 15-fold and attract around $1 trillion of cumulative investment by 2040. This is driven by falling costs, supportive government policies and some remarkable technological progress, such as larger turbines and floating foundations. That’s just the start – the IEA report finds that offshore wind technology has the potential to grow far more strongly with stepped-up support from policy makers.

Europe has pioneered offshore wind technology, and the region is positioned to be the powerhouse of its future development. Today, offshore wind capacity in the European Union stands at almost 20 gigawatts. Under current policy settings, that is set to rise to nearly 130 gigawatts by 2040. However, if the European Union reaches its carbon-neutrality aims, offshore wind capacity would jump to around 180 gigawatts by 2040 and become the region’s largest single source of electricity, the IEA said in a press release, adding that an even more ambitious vision – in which policies drive a big increase in demand for clean hydrogen produced by offshore wind – could push European offshore wind capacity dramatically higher.

According to the IEA said governments and regulators can clear the path ahead for offshore wind’s development by providing the long-term vision that will encourage industry and investors to undertake the major investments required to develop offshore wind projects and link them to power grids on land. That includes careful market design, ensuring low-cost financing and regulations that recognise that the development of onshore grid infrastructure is essential to the efficient integration of power production from offshore wind.

The IEA urged industry to continue the rapid development of the technology so that wind turbines keep growing in size and power capacity, which in turn delivers the major performance and cost reductions that enables offshore wind to become more competitive with gas-fired power and onshore wind.

What’s more, huge business opportunities exist for oil and gas sector companies to draw on their offshore expertise, the IEA said, adding that estimated 40% of the lifetime costs of an offshore wind project, including construction and maintenance, have significant synergies with the offshore oil and gas sector. That translates into a market opportunity of USD 400 billion or more in Europe and China over the next two decades.

“The numbers the IEA envisage for Europe are actually conservative. They say 130-180 GW by 2040. But we’ll already have 90 GW by 2030, thanks to the increased commitments Governments have made since they started writing their National Energy & Climate Plans. The EU Commission’s eight scenarios for 2050 envisage between 230 and 450 GW by 2050, and that’s what we’re aiming for,” Dickson said.