据路透社伦敦报道，全球经济阴云密布，导致全球两家顶级石油公司警告投资者，自2014年石油危机以来，承诺的回报增长可能首次面临风险。
英国石油公司BP和荷兰皇家壳牌的股息占富时股息总额的近15%，这两家公司本周都发出信号，由于油价未能实现预期的复苏，数十亿美元的股东回报可能被推迟。
这一严峻的警告导致两家公司的股价大幅下跌，削弱了投资者对石油和天然气行业的兴趣。
这也反映了大西洋两岸日益增长的趋势：在近年来石油和天然气充斥市场之后，美国页岩气公司在很大程度上未能实现回报，因此投资者正在使美国页岩气公司失去新资本。
诚然，看跌前景掩盖了壳牌和BP自2014年以来业绩的稳步和显著改善：尽管油价波动，但大幅削减成本和节约开支大幅增加了收入。
世界上大多数顶级石油公司都能在每桶50至60美元的油价获利，而目前石油以每桶60美元左右的价格交易。
但这些公司仍然严重依赖更强劲的石油和天然气价格来实现更高的回报。
壳牌首席财务官杰西卡·乌尔（Jessica Uhl）在电话中对记者表示：“我们的前景取决于价格和利润率环境的改善。”她补充说，她看到了2019年和2020年经济活动比预期放缓的明确信号。
去年，壳牌是仅次于埃克森美孚的第二大上市油气公司，但其利润是最高的，目前正在进行一项为期三年、价值250亿美元的股票回购计划，这是世界上最大的股票回购计划。
乌尔表示：“但目前的情况并不符合我们所说的水平，如果这种情况持续到2020年，我们就需要延长回购期限。”
今年早些时候，壳牌还承诺在2021年至2025年期间向股东返还1250亿美元。
RBC资本市场分析师 Biraj Borkhataria在一份报告中表示: “管理层的问题是：什么更重要？是公司继续维持目前的运行利率，而牺牲资产负债表？还是公司为了维持稳健的资产负债表而放慢回购速度。常识表明，资产负债表要重要得多。”
Borkhataria对该股票提出了“部门业绩”建议，他表示，壳牌公司需要在2020年后再回购300亿美元，以减轻股息负担。
BP首席财务官Brian Gilvary告诉路透社，美国和世界上最大的能源消费国中国之间的贸易紧张正在对全球石油和天然气需求造成压力。
Gilvary在一次分析师电话会议中表示，BP可能在今年年底将预期的股息增长推迟到明年，并将其与明年3月份首席执行官的变动联系起来。
Gilvary称：“我们肯定会在今年第四季度讨论这个问题，但更有可能的是，讨论将不仅仅限于这个问题。”
石油和天然气行业面临来自投资者要求其解决碳排放问题，并达到2015年巴黎气候协议限制全球变暖的目标，该行业对投资者获得更大回报承诺的压力越来越大。
一部分投资基金已将石油类股从投资组合中整体下调，促使石油公司以更高的回报作出回应。
就产量而言，道达尔已成为近几个季度增长最快的石油巨头之一，该公司已经确认了其增加支出的承诺。
道达尔将2019年的股息增加了6%，其董事会承诺在2025年之前，每年将股息增加5%至6%。
詹晓晶 摘自 路透社
原文如下：
Big Oil, investors face returns reckoning amid darkening economy
Darkening clouds over the global economy have led two of the world’s top oil firms to warn investors that promised growth in returns could be at risk for the first time since the 2014 oil downturn.
Both BP and Royal Dutch Shell, which account for nearly 15% of the FTSE’s total dividends, signaled this week that billions of dollars in shareholder returns could be delayed as oil prices failed to make their expected recovery.
The stark warnings led to sharp drops in the shares of both companies, weakening investors’ appetite for the oil and gas sector.
They echo, however, a growing trend across the Atlantic where investors are starving U.S. shale companies of new capital after they largely failed to deliver returns after flooding the market with oil and gas in recent years.
To be sure, the bearish outlook overshadowed a steady and significant improvement in Shell and BP’s performance since 2014 as deep cost cuts and thrifty spending sharply boosted revenues despite a modest and volatile recovery in oil prices.
Most of the world’s top oil companies can make profits at oil prices of $50 to $60 a barrel. Oil is currently trading at around $60 a barrel.
But the companies still heavily rely on stronger oil and gas prices to deliver higher returns.
“Our outlook is tied to an improved price and margin environment,” Shell Chief Financial Officer Jessica Uhl told reporters on a call, adding that she saw “clear signals” of slower economic activity in 2019 and 2020 than expected.
Shell, the second largest but the most profitable listed oil and gas company last year after U.S. ExxonMobil, is in the midst of a three-year $25 billion share buyback program, the world’s biggest.
But “the current conditions aren’t meeting where we said they needed to be, and if that continues into 2020 then we will need to extend the time period” for the buybacks, Uhl said.
Earlier this year the Anglo-Dutch company also promised to return $125 billion to shareholders between 2021 and 2025.
“The question for management is what is more important – does the company continue on the current run rate and sacrifice the balance sheet? Or does the company slow the buyback in order to maintain a robust balance sheet. Common sense suggests the balance sheet is much more important,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria, said in a note.
Borkhataria, who has a “sector perform” recommendation on the stock, said that Shell requires an additional $30 billion in buybacks after 2020 in order to reduce the dividend burden.
BP Chief Financial Officer Brian Gilvary on Tuesday told Reuters that trade tensions between the United States and China, the world’s largest energy consumers, are weighing on global oil and gas demand.
Gilvary indicated in an analyst call that the London-listed company could delay an expected increase to its dividend by the end of this year to next year, linking it to the changing of CEOs in March.
“We’ll certainly discuss it at 4Q, but it’s more likely it will be beyond that,” Gilvary said.
The promise of bigger returns comes as the oil and gas sector faces increasing pressure from investors to tackle its carbon emissions and fall in line with the 2015 Paris climate agreement targets to limit global warming.
Some investment funds have dropped oil stocks from their portfolio all together, prompting oil firms to respond by pledging higher returns.
France’s Total, which has emerged as one of the fastest growing oil majors in recent quarters in terms of output, has confirmed its commitment to boost the payout.
Total increased its 2019 dividend by 6% and the board has committed to increase it by a further 5% to 6% per year until 2025.
