据海事新闻10月4日消息称，雷斯塔能源表示，一旦荷兰提前数年关闭欧洲大陆最大的天然气田，欧洲的能源格局将彻底改变。
荷兰最近宣布，欧洲最大的天然气田格罗宁根(Groningen)将于2022年停产，比原计划提前8年。然而，尽管雄心勃勃的目标是到2022年使该油田关停，但雷斯塔德能源公司预计格罗宁根到2030年可能会有一些剩余产量，因为在如此短的时间内完全停产在技术上具有挑战性。
格罗宁根能源产量的大幅下降将重新定义欧洲能源格局。该气田的产量在本世纪初出现反弹，2013年达到570亿立方米(Bcm)，数十年来一直是西北欧洲天然气系统的核心。
雷斯塔能源的天然气市场研究主管Carlos Torres-Diaz表示：“这个巨型气田的逐步停产将迫使欧洲以更快的速度扩大其天然气进口。我们已经看到，荷兰正在发生这种巨大转变，该国正处于从天然气净出口国向净进口国的转变过程中。”
在欧洲，随着国内产量的下降和需求的持续增长，将需要更多的替代能源供应。欧洲大陆有雄心勃勃的计划，要淘汰煤炭和核能发电，这可能会导致天然气需求上升，尤其是在中期。
可再生能源应该弥补部分损失的电力容量，但由于这些技术的容量因素较低且间歇性，电力系统将严重依赖燃气发电来保障供电安全。因此，雷斯塔能源预测，到2025年，欧洲的天然气发电需求将继续增长，然后随着可再生能源的发展势头增强，需求将逐渐下降。
荷兰正式设定了一个雄心勃勃的目标，到2040年，83%的发电将来自太阳能和风能。向可再生能源的转型意味着，天然气电力的需求可能在2020年达到峰值，并比欧洲其他国家更早开始逐步下降。这将导致未来20年天然气总需求下降32%，从2019年的约370亿立方米降至2040年的250亿立方米。
Torres-Diaz补充说：“荷兰需要更多的管道和液化天然气进口，以取代格罗宁根日益下降的产量。预计荷兰对邻国的出口也将下降，使整个地区更加依赖液化天然气进口来满足需求。”
雷斯塔德能源公司预计，未来两年全球液化天然气市场仍将供过于求，2023年后将趋紧。
Torres-Diaz指出：“我们对亚洲带动全球需求长期增长的潜力保持乐观，并预测到2030年，液化天然气的总需求将达到每年6.04亿吨。这这意味着到2030年需要1.75亿吨的新供应量来满足需求。”
谈到全球天然气市场，雷斯塔德能源公司预测，到2030年，全球供应量将达到46600亿立方米。北美、中东和俄罗斯推动了这一进程。
Torres-Diaz 表示：“自我们在2019年6月的上一次预测以来，我们已经将2030年的基础供应前景提高了约500亿立方米，这是受到美国和俄罗斯供应潜力增加的推动。”
曹海斌 摘译自 海事新闻
原文如下：
Europe Looks for Gas as Groningen Folds
Europe’s energy landscape will be completely changed once the Dutch shut down the largest gas field on the continent years ahead of schedule, according to Rystad Energy.
The Netherland recently announced that production at Groningen – Europe’s largest gas field--will be halted in 2022, eight years earlier than initially planned. However, despite the ambitious target of decommissioning the field by 2022, Rystad Energy expects that there could be some residual production from Groningen up to 2030 as it is technically challenging to completely shut down production in such a short timeframe.
The drastic drop in output from Groningen will redefine the European energy landscape. The field, which had a rebound in production at the start of this century, reaching 57 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in 2013, was for decades the central cog in northwest Europe’s gas system.
“The phase-out of this giant field will force Europe to expand its gas imports at an even quicker pace. We can already see this drastic shift taking place in the Netherlands, which is in the midst of the transition from being a net gas exporter to a net importer,” says Carlos Torres-Diaz, head of gas markets research at Rystad Energy.
In Europe, more supply from alternative sources will be needed as domestic production declines and demand continues to increase. The continent has ambitious plans to decommission coal and nuclear power generation, and this could lead to higher gas demand, especially in the medium term.
Renewable energy sources should replace some of the lost power capacity, but due to the low capacity factors of these technologies and their intermittency, the power system will rely strongly on gas power to provide security of supply. Consequently, Rystad Energy forecasts that gas-for-power demand in Europe will continue to increase until 2025 and then gradually decrease as renewables gain momentum.
The Netherlands has formally set an ambitious goal that 83% of total power generation is to be sourced from solar and wind by 2040. Such a transition to renewables means that the need for gas-power could reach a peak in 2020 and start a gradual decline earlier than in the rest of Europe. This will lead to a 32% drop in total gas demand in the country over the next two decades, from around 37 Bcm in 2019 to 25 Bcm by 2040.
“More pipeline and LNG imports will be needed in the Netherlands to replace declining production from Groningen. Dutch exports to neighboring countries are also expected to drop making the whole region more dependent on LNG imports to meet its demand,” Torres-Diaz added.
Rystad Energy expects the global market for LNG to remain oversupplied over the next two years and then tighten after 2023.
“We remain optimistic about the potential for global growth in demand driven by Asia in the long term and forecast total LNG demand to reach 604 million tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2030. That means 175 million tpa of new supply is needed to meet demand by 2030,” Torres-Diaz remarked.
Turning to the global market for natural gas, Rystad Energy forecasts global supply will reach 4660 Bcm by 2030. The additions are driven by North America, the Middle East and Russia.
“Since our last forecast in June 2019, we have increased our base supply outlook by around 50 Bcm for 2030, driven by increased supply potential from the US and Russia” Torres-Diaz said.
