据钻机地带9月18日彭博社报道， 墨西哥石油公司(PetroleosMexicanos)预计，未来三年石油出口将大幅下降，因为该公司面临着产量下降和投资80亿美元新建的炼油厂供应原油的双重挑战。

据两位知情人士透露，墨西哥国家石油公司(Pemex)预计，2021年至2023年，其旗舰重质原油玛雅油（Maya）的出口将减少近70%。该知情人士表示，预计明年至2022年期间，玛雅的出口将减少近一半，2022年至2023年期间将再次减少。由于信息尚未公开，该人士要求不具名。

Pemex的代表没有回复置评请求。

墨西哥承诺提高国内燃料产量，以减少对汽油进口的依赖。墨西哥国家石油公司在墨西哥销售的汽油中，汽油约占65%。

该策略的核心是一个将加工Maya的新炼油厂。墨西哥现有的6家炼油厂混合了Maya和一种国内轻质原油Isthmus。在塔巴斯科州建造的新工厂将拥有日产34万桶石油的加工能力。

一些批判人士认为，Dos Bocas炼油厂在2023年完工的计划过于雄心勃勃。目前运营的6家工厂只有其产能的三分之一，而一旦汽油产量增加，就会出现额外的亏损。

Pemex在中断一年半后，于去年12月恢复了 Isthmus原油出口。但随着Pemex努力扭转连续15年的产量下滑，较重品级的出口出现下滑。据彭博社收集的数据显示，今年7月，该公司每天出口88.8万桶重质原油，较上年同期下降23%，其中包括Maya、Altamira和Talam。8月份墨西哥国家石油公司近80%的原油发货量来自玛雅。

郝芬 译自 钻机地带

原文如下：

Pemex Sees Plunge in Oil Exports

Petroleos Mexicanos expects a drastic drop in oil exports over the next three years as the company faces the twin challenges of declining output and supplying crude to a controversial new $8 billion refinery championed.

Pemex, as the state oil company is also called, is forecasting a reduction of almost 70% in exports of its flagship heavy crude known as Maya between 2021 and 2023, according to two people familiar with the situation. It expects to cut Maya exports by almost half between next year and 2022 and lower them again between 2022 and 2023, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information hasn’t been made public.

A Pemex representative didn’t respond to a request for comment.

AMLO swept into power in December 2018 promising to rescue Pemex by dialing back his predecessor’s 2013-2014 energy reforms, which had ended the company’s nearly eight decades-long monopoly. He has also pledged to ramp up domestic fuel production to reduce dependence on gasoline imports, which account for about 65% of what Pemex sells in Mexico.

At the heart of this policy is a new refinery that will process Maya. Mexico’s six existing refineries blend Maya and a lighter domestic crude, Isthmus. The new plant being built in state of Tabasco will have the capacity to process 340,000 barrels of oil a day.

The timeline for finishing the Dos Bocas refinery by 2023 is viewed by some critics as overly ambitious. The six plants currently operating do so at just one-third of their capacity and post additional losses when they produce more gasoline.

Pemex restarted exports of Isthmus crude in December after not doing so for a year and a half. But exports of heavier grades have fallen as Pemex struggles to reverse 15 consecutive years of output declines. In July, the company exported 888,000 barrels a day of heavy crudes including Maya, Altamira and Talam, a 23% drop from a year earlier. Maya represented almost 80% of Pemex’s crude shipments in August, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.