据烃加工新闻3月17日消息称，GlobalData表示，俄罗斯有望在前苏联(FSU)炼油行业的产能增长中处于领先地位，无论是正在进行的还是即将进行的(计划和宣布的)项目，都将占2019年至2024年期间总产能增长的56%。
该公司的报告《全球炼油行业至2024年的展望——产能和资本支出展望，以及所有运营和计划炼油厂的细节》显示，到2024年，FSU的原油精炼总产能预计将从2019年的870万桶/天增加到960万桶/天。其中，53.7万桶/天的新增产能可能来自于炼油厂项目的扩建，而剩余的33.2万桶/天产能则来自于已规划和宣布的新建项目。
GlobalData石油和天然气分析师Krishna Teja评论道:“在预测期内，俄罗斯将以每天48.5万桶的产量引领FSU炼油产能的增长。该国新增产能中，大部分来自于活跃炼油厂的扩建，日新增产能为46.3万桶。在展望期内，莫斯科1号炼油厂以每天10.6万桶的产能引领着俄罗斯的产能增长。”
GlobalData预计，就FSU增加的原油精炼产能而言，格鲁吉亚将成为第二大国家。两家新建的炼油厂——Supsa和Kulevi——预计将分别以10万桶/天和8.4万桶/天的产能，占据该国新增的全部产能。Supsa是一个已宣布的炼油厂，预计将于2022年投产，而Kulevi是一个计划中的炼油厂，有望在2024年投入运营。
在2020年至2024年的展望期内，就炼油产能的增加而言，爱沙尼亚很可能成为FSU成员国中第三大的国家。该国新增的6万桶/天的炼油产能，可能全部来自拟建的Sillamae炼油厂。这家炼油厂预计将于2021年开始运营。
曹海斌 摘译自 烃加工新闻
原文如下：
Russia leads FSU refining capacity growth
Russia is expected to lead the refining industry capacity growth in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) from active and upcoming (planned and announced) projects, accounting for 56% of the total capacity growth between 2019 and 2024, says GlobalData.
The company’s report, ‘Global Refining Industry Outlook to 2024 – Capacity and Capital Expenditure Outlook with Details of All Operating and Planned Refineries’, reveals that the total crude oil refining capacity in the FSU is expected to increase from 8.7 million bpd in 2019 to 9.6 million bpd by 2024. Of this, 537 000 bpd capacity additions are likely from expansions of active refinery projects, while the remaining 332 000 bpd is from the new-build planned and announced projects.
Krishna Teja, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Russia is set to lead refining capacity growth in the FSU with 485 000 bpd during the forecast period. Expansions of active refineries account for most of the capacity additions in the country with 463 000 bpd. The Moscow I refinery leads capacity expansions in the country with 106 000 bpd during the outlook period.”
GlobalData expects Georgia to be the second largest country in terms of crude oil refining capacity additions in the FSU. Two new-build refineries – Supsa and Kulevi – are expected to account for entire capacity additions in the country with 100 000 bpd and 84 000 bpd, respectively. The Supsa is an announced refinery, expected to start operations in 2022, while Kulevi is a planned refinery likely to come online in 2024.
Estonia is likely to be the third largest among the countries in the FSU, in terms of refining capacity additions over the outlook period 2020 – 2024. The country’s entire refining capacity additions of 60 000 bpd is likely to come from the planned Sillamae refinery. This refinery is expected to commence operations in 2021.
