据今日油价11月29日报道,路透社周五对经济学家和分析师进行的月度调查显示,明年全球经济和石油需求增长的不确定性将继续给油价带来压力,因为市场供过于求的情况可能会持续下去。
据42位专家称,布伦特原油到2020年的平均价格将为每桶62.50美元,略高于上个月路透社的调查。路透社的分析师预测,明年国际基准原油的平均价格为62.38美元。
经济学家预计明年WTI原油均价为每桶57.30美元,也略高于上月估计的56.98美元。
周五美国东部时间上午7:36,WTI原油下跌0.15%至58.02美元,布伦特原油下跌0.62%至62.88美元。
分析师预计,由于经济增长疲软,2020年上半年需求增长将疲软。 另一方面,大多数人都认为市场上有太多的石油。 据路透社调查的专家称,需求增长可能在80万桶/日至140万桶/日之间。
明年,预计石油需求的增长将从今年较低的增长速度中回升,但是,来自石油输出国组织(OPEC +联盟)以外的生产国(例如美国,巴西和挪威)的石油供应增长快于需求增长,并抵消了该组织及其同盟重新平衡市场的努力。
郝芬 译自 今日油价
原文如下:
Oil Prices Are Going Nowhere Next Year
Uncertainty over global economic and oil demand growth will continue to weigh on oil prices next year as the oversupply in the market will likely persist, the monthly Reuters poll of economists and analysts showed on Friday.
According to 42 experts, Brent Crude will average US$62.50 per barrel in 2020, just slightly up from last month’s poll by Reuters, in which analysts predicted an average price of US$62.38 for the international benchmark next year.
The economists expect WTI Crude to average US$57.30 a barrel next year, also slightly up from last month’s US$56.98 estimate.
At 07:36 a.m. EDT on Friday, WTI Crude was down 0.15 percent at US$58.02 and Brent Crude was trading down 0.62 percent at US$62.88.
The analysts expect weak demand growth in the first half of 2020 due to weak economic growth. On the other hand, most agree that there is too much oil in the market. Demand growth could be anywhere in the range of 800,000 bpd to 1.4 million bpd, according to the experts surveyed by Reuters.
Next year, oil demand growth is expected to pick up from this year’s lower growth pace, but oil supply from producers not part of the OPEC+ coalition—such as the United States, Brazil, and Norway—is seen growing faster than the rise in demand, and offsetting efforts of the cartel and its allies to rebalance the market.
(来源:未知)
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