IEA：石油市场可能在2020年面临供应过剩

据油气新闻10月30日消息称，国际能源署能源市场与安全主任周二表示，由于需求增长疲软，石油产量增加，预计2020年石油市场将面临供应过剩。

参加新加坡国际能源周的Keisuke Sadamori表示:“总体而言，我们将在2020年继续看到供应充足的市场。”

Sadamori告诉CNBC：“除非其他情况有所改变，否则我们可能会看到贸易顺差，除非出现非常强劲的需求增长复苏。”

这家总部位于巴黎的机构在其最新的月度报告中，将2019年和2020年的石油需求增长数字下调了每天10万桶。IEA在报告中称，预计2020年石油需求将以每天120万桶的“稳定”速度增长。

Sadamori表示，全球宏观经济担忧以及围绕英国退欧(英国退出欧盟贸易集团)的事态发展，都困扰着石油市场前景。

石油输出国组织和包括俄罗斯在内的其他产油国自今年1月以来已将日产量削减120万桶，以支撑市场。

然而，由于美国等非欧佩克成员国的页岩油产量增加，今年的石油供应有所增加。Sadamori说，巴西和挪威明年也将生产更多的石油。

他说，与此同时，由于上半年增长疲软，印度需求增长低于预期，因此2019年需求疲软。2019年下半年的增长受到2018年同期较低基数的支撑。

今年9月，沙特阿拉伯被迫将石油产量削减一半，此前该国石油加工设施遭到了一系列无人机袭击。关停影响了近570万桶原油的日产量，约占全球石油日产量的5%。

Sadamori说，尽管袭击发生后，但供应的恢复“相当可观”，这让沙特在世界各地的客户感到安慰，也保证了世界石油市场的稳定。

曹海斌 摘译自 油气新闻

原文如下：

Oil markets could face oversupply in 2020, the IEA says

Oil markets are expected to face excess supplies in 2020 due to a production boost amid weak demand growth, the director for energy markets and security at the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.

“Overall, we will continue to see a well supplied market in 2020,” said Keisuke Sadamori at the Singapore International Energy Week.

“Unless other things change, we will see a surplus probably, unless there is very strong demand growth recovery,” Sadamori told CNBC.

In its latest monthly report, the Paris-based agency cut its oil demand growth figure by 100,000 barrels a day for 2019 and 2020. Oil demand is expected grow at a “still solid” 1.2 million barrels a day in 2020, IEA said in the report.

Global macroeconomic concerns and the developments surrounding Brexit — the UK’s exit from the European Union trade bloc — are issues clouding the oil market outlook, said Sadamori.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and other producers including Russia, have implemented an output cut by 1.2 million barrels per day since January in a bid to support the market.

However, oil supplies this year have been boosted by non-OPEC members such as the U.S. in shale oil production. Brazil and Norway will also produce more oil next year, said Sadamori.

Meanwhile, demand in 2019 has been weak, amid weak growth in the first half and India demand growth slower than expected, he said. Growth in the second half of 2019 is being supported by a low base over the same period in 2018.

In September, Saudi Arabia was forced to cut its oil production by half following a series of drone strikes on its oil processing facility. The closure affected nearly 5.7 million barrels of crude production a day — or about 5% of the world’s daily oil production.

While the recovery in supplies has been “quite impressive,” said Sadamori, giving comfort to the Kingdom’s customers around the world and assurance of the stability of world oil markets.