随着气温上升 天然气价格下跌

据世界石油12月2日纽约报道，11月天然气价格创下自2001年以来的最大跌幅，因为预测显示没有迹象表明美国的寒冷天气会刺激对这种取暖燃料的需求。

据气象预测公司Commodity Weather Group LLC(CWG)的数据，12月第二周的天气预计将会转暖，美国大部分地区的气温将高于正常水平。CWG表示：“如果没有迹象表明高压区会变强，让寒冷的天气停留在48华氏度以下，那么本月中旬的趋势应该会继续变暖。”

随着页岩盆地的天然气产量攀升至新高，市场需要一场“极地风暴”来帮助吸走过剩的供应。尽管出口飙升至创纪录水平，美国家庭和企业使用的燃料也比以往任何时候都多，但产量却超过了需求，导致天然气储存在枯竭的含水层和盐穴中，接近两年来的最高水平。

Again Capital创始合伙人John Kilduff表示:“12月的天气前景仍不明朗。期货突破2.50美元的一些关键支撑位，现在可能向2.20美元靠近。”

纽约商品交易所1月份交割的天然气价格下跌22美分，至每百万英热单位2.281美元，跌幅8.8%。11月份价格下跌超过13%，上周五的跌幅是自1月份以来最大的单日跌幅。由于美国的感恩节假期，周四没有结算，所有的交易都在周五完成。

美国能源情报署上周五发布的一份报告显示，美国8月份天然气日产量较前上一个月增长1.5%，至1128.79亿立方英尺。

裘寅 编译自 世界石油

原文如下：

Natural gas tumbles as temperatures set to rise

Natural gas prices capped their biggest November drop since 2001 as forecasts showed no sign of the teeth-chattering U.S. cold needed to boost demand for the heating fuel.

The outlook for the second week of December turned warmer overnight, with temperatures now expected to be above normal across most of the contiguous U.S., according to forecaster Commodity Weather Group LLC. “The trends into mid-month should keep getting warmer” without evidence of a stronger high-pressure area that would allow frigid conditions to settle over the Lower 48, CWG said.

As gas output from shale basins climbs to fresh highs, the market needs a polar blast to help siphon off the excess supply. Though exports have soared to a record and American homes and businesses are using more of the fuel than ever, production is outstripping demand, leaving gas stored in depleted aquifers and salt caverns near a two-year high.

“The weather outlook continues to fall apart for December,” says John Kilduff, founding partner at Again Capital. “Futures broke some key support at the $2.50 level,” and they may now be heading for $2.20, he said.

Gas for January delivery fell 22 cents, or 8.8%, to $2.281 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices were down more than 13% in November, and the drop on Friday was the worst one-day slide since January. There was no settlement Thursday due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and all transactions were booked Friday.

U.S. gas production rose to 1.5% in August to 112.879 billion cubic feet per day from a month earlier, according to a U.S. Energy Information Administration report Friday.