ESAI：EIA和IEA严重高估美国明年原油产量

据全球能源新闻网2019年11月25日休斯顿报道，全球著名石油与能源数据提供商ESAI 能源公司（ESAI Energy）的最新北美观察报告显示，该公司认为，美国能源信息署(EIA)和国际能源署(IEA)在11月份对明年美国原油产量增长的预测都过于乐观。

ESAI 能源公司预计明年美国的原油产量增长将放缓至大约65万桶/日，而EIA和IEA的预测分别为100万桶/日和90万桶/日。

ESAI能源公司指出，许多页岩生产商减少资本支出来应对投资者花在现金流中的压力，服务部门闲置设备和裁员以及对压裂砂需求疲弱趋近EIA和IEA预测的经济增长放缓的结论。

ESAI能源公司在其对页岩生产商财务状况的季度评估中指出，与去年相比，今年第三季度页岩生产商的整体净收入出现了大幅下降，在油价低于每桶60美元时，增加钻机数量以实现更高增长的难度也很大。

随着过去一年钻探活动的放缓，DUC(已开钻但尚未完钻的井)的减少提振了产量增长。ESAI能源公司指出，在某些情况下，需要增加钻机，或者提高生产率和效率，以抵消遗留设备的大量减少。

ESAI能源公司分析师伊丽莎白?墨菲指出：“由于页岩生产商不断转向以回报为基础的模式，而不是以增长为基础的模式，石油市场最终将会走强。但在短期内，油价需要上涨，我们才能看到更高的生产增长率。”

李峻 编译自 全球能源新闻

原文如下：

EIA, IEA Grossly Overestimating US Shale: ESAI

ESAI Energy, an oil & energy data provider, believes both the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) are overly optimistic in their November projections of US crude oil production in 2020, according to the company’s latest North America Watch.

ESAI Energy sees a deceleration in growth to about 650,000 b/d next year, in contrast to the EIA and IEA forecasts of 1.0 million b/d and 900,000 b/d, respectively.

ESAI points to declining capital expenditures by many shale producers in response to investor pressure to spend within cash flow, a service sector that is idling equipment and laying off workers, along with weak demand for frac sand in reaching its conclusion of slower growth than the EIA and IEA projections.

In its quarterly review of shale producers’ financial positions, ESAI Energy notes the steep drop in overall net income in the third quarter of this year compared to last year, and the difficulty of adding rigs for higher growth when oil prices are below $60.

With the slowdown in drilling over the past year, production growth has been given a boost with a drawdown in DUC (drilled but uncompleted) wells. ESAI points out that at some point rigs will have to be added or productivity and efficiencies will need to increase to offset high rates of legacy decline.

ESAI Energy analyst Elisabeth Murphy notes that “as shale producers keep moving toward a returns-based model rather a growth-based model, the oil market will eventually strengthen. But in the near-term, oil prices will need to rise before we see higher rates of production growth.”