据烃加工在线5月23日消息称，炼油行业以其弹性和适应性而闻名。这些特性对于帮助它度过正在酝酿中的一场完美风暴至关重要，这场风暴将对该行业产生深远影响，一直持续到2050年。5月20日和21日在匈牙利布达佩斯举行的2019年欧洲博览会上，人们广泛讨论了这场风暴的要素。此次大会吸引了来自世界各地炼油厂和供应商的400名与会者。
随着《国际海事组织2020年海洋燃料条例》的实施，风暴将于明年1月1日爆发。但是这个里程碑的准备工作已经在进行中。来自葡萄牙Galp和土耳其Tupras两家炼油厂的报告显示，他们为确保在2020年国际海事组织后的生存能力而进行的准备和投资已经进入了高级阶段。挑战在于航运业将开始使用更多的中间馏分油和更少的重油来减少硫的排放。
炼油厂升级投资是必要的，以确保产品组合保持相关和盈利。一种选择是投资一个“延迟焦化装置”，将重馏分转化为焦炭和海洋天然气(MGO) 另一个选择的出路，为重型端是处理他们在气化炉生产合成气为IGCC发电。这是沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司贾赞炼油厂在他们的项目中采取的一项选择，该项目要建造一座2.4 GW的发电厂，与炼油厂相结合。
展望未来，汽车行业还将推动成品油燃料结构的变化。电动汽车使用量的增长，以及氢和液化天然气作为运输燃料的出现，将逐步侵蚀柴油和汽油的需求。非洲和美国产能的增加，将抑制欧洲生产的汽油的出口市场。尽管新型汽车燃料不断增长，但欧洲市场的柴油短缺预计将进一步加剧，因为柴油仍将是重型汽车的首选燃料，现在也将作为MGO转向海洋应用。所有这些加在一起构成了一个不确定的产品结构动态，但明显表明欧洲汽油生产能力过剩。
欧洲下游地区轻质馏分过剩的另一个出路，将是将它们转化为价值更高的石化产品。这这是几位主讲人的主题，他们先后在大会上发言，强调炼油和石化一体化的重要性。
更遥远的目标是《巴黎协定》提出的2050年二氧化碳减排目标，以减缓气候变化。炼油厂和其他工业活动将需要在其业务方面进行重大改革，以便在实现这一目标方面发挥作用。一种选择是增加炼油厂生物原料的数量，以生产可再生生物燃料。奈斯特石油在芬兰的一项战略解释说，他们多年来一直在实施这一战略，取得了巨大的技术和商业成功。
一些运营商报告称，在过去5年里，通过一系列工艺设备升级和实施基本的最佳实践，如使用额外的蒸汽疏水阀，二氧化碳排放强度降低了20%左右。通通过可再生风能和太阳能路线生产炼油业务所需的电力，也是炼油业务去碳化的一项新兴战略。更未来的气候行动减缓战略包括将二氧化碳排放重新用于生产化学品，例如通过多元醇生产聚氨酯。该领域催化剂创新的步伐，以及最近二氧化碳排放交易机制碳排放额度成本的大幅上升，可能会使该领域的技术比许多人此前认为的可能更快实现商业化。
曹海斌 摘译自 烃加工在线
原文如下：
Rolling waves of change for the refining sector from 2020 to 2050
The refining industry has become known for its resilience and adaptability. These attributes will be essential to help it weather a perfect storm that is brewing, which will have far-reaching consequences for the sector through to 2050. The elements of the storm were discussed extensively at PRC Europe 2019 in Budapest, Hungary, on 20 and 21 of May. The congress attracted 400 participants from refineries and suppliers to the sector worldwide.
The storm will break on 1 January next year, with the implementation of the IMO 2020 regulations for marine fuels. But preparations for that milestone are already well under way. Presentations from refiners Galp in Portugal and Tupras in Turkey revealed the advanced stage of the preparations and investments that they have been making to secure their viability post IMO 2020. The challenge is that the shipping industry will begin to use more middle distillates and less heavy fuel oil to reduce sulfur emissions.
Refinery upgrade investments are required to ensure that the product mix remains relevant and profitable. One option is to invest in a ‘delayed coker unit’ to convert the heavy fractions to coke and marine gas oil (MGO). An alternative outlet for the heavy-ends is to process them in gasifiers which produce syngas for IGCC power generation. This is the option that has been taken at the Saudi Aramco Jazan refinery in their project to construct a 2.4 GW power plant which is integrated to the refinery.
Looking further to the future, the automotive sector will also drive changes in the refined products fuels mix. The growth of electric vehicle usage and the emergence of hydrogen and LNG as transportation fuels will progressively erode the demand for diesel and gasoline. Capacity additions in Africa and the US will curtail export markets for gasoline produced in Europe. Despite the growth of new automotive fuels, the shortage of diesel in the European market is expected to deepen as it continues to be the fuel of choice for heavy vehicles and it will now also be diverted to marine applications as MGO. It all adds up to an uncertain dynamic in the product mix but clearly indicates over-capacity for gasoline production in Europe.
One alternative outlet for the surplus of lighter fractions in the European downstream arena will be to convert them to higher value petrochemicals. This was the topic of several keynote speakers who successively took the stage at the congress to emphasise the importance of refinery and petrochemicals integration.
Even further out are the Paris Agreement 2050 targets for carbon dioxide emissions reductions to slow down climate change. Refineries and other industrial activities will need to undergo a major transformation in their operations to play their part in reaching this goal. One option is to increase the quantity of bio-based feedstocks to the refinery to create renewable biofuels. A strategy that Neste Oil in Finland explained they have been pursuing for many years with great technical and commercial success.
Some operators reported carbon dioxide emission intensity reductions in the order of 20% in the past 5 years through a series of process equipment upgrades and the implementation of basic best practices, such as the use of additional steam traps. Production of the electrical power required for refining operations through renewable wind and solar routes is also an emerging strategy for de-carbonisation of refinery operations. More futuristic climate action mitigation strategies include re-use of carbon dioxide emissions to produce chemicals, such as the production of polyurethane via polyols. The pace of catalyst innovation in that sector and the recent steep rise in the cost of carbon dioxide emissions trading scheme credits may make that see that technology commercialise sooner than many had previously thought possible.
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