下一轮石油热潮正在非欧佩克国家上演

据今日油价12月29日报道，就在美国页岩工业放缓之际，其他非欧佩克国家的石油产量也在上升。

美国页岩油的产量在2019年大幅增长，尽管增速低于过去几年。更重要的是，随着投资者失去兴趣，资本市场变得不友好，页岩勘探与开发公司将越来越难以在自身现金流之外进行钻探融资。由于企业在追求正现金流的过程中被迫削减，供应增长可能会进一步放缓。

在过去几年中，全球供应平衡往往以需求增长速度与美国页岩增长速度为中心。长期的供应过剩是因为页岩的增长速度远远快于消费者的消化速度。欧佩克+不得不连续不断削减预算几次，以试图平衡差异。

但是，到2020年，其他国家也将加入供应增长组合，就像美国页岩正在踩刹车一样。 JBC Energy在一份报告中写道：“一方面，成熟地区的项目规模有所增加，导致挪威北海，墨西哥湾和巴西的多年高点。”石油公司由于削减了成本而继续向挪威和墨西哥湾投入资金，而在巴西，新的盐下气田已开始投产。

JBC称，此外，在经历了一年的持续下滑之后，我们已经看到一些国家，例如墨西哥，稳定了其产出。

郝芬 译自 今日油价

原文如下：

The Next Oil Boom Is Happening Here

Just as the U.S. shale industry is slowing down, oil production in other non-OPEC countries is on the rise.

Output in U.S. shale grew substantially in 2019, although at a slower rate than in years past. More importantly, as investors lose interest and capital markets become unfriendly, shale E&Ps are going to have an increasingly difficult time financing drilling outside of their own cash flow. As companies are forced to cutback in the pursuit of positive cash flow, supply growth will likely slow even further.

For the last few years, global supply balances often centered on the pace of demand growth versus the pace of U.S. shale growth. Chronic supply surpluses occurred because shale grew much faster than consumers could digest it. OPEC+ felt compelled to cut back several times – and on an ongoing basis – in order to try to balance out the difference.

Going into 2020, however, other countries are joining the supply growth mix, just as U.S. shale taps the brakes. “On the one hand, mature areas have seen small and large scale project additions, leading to multi-year highs in the Norwegian North Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and Brazil,” JBC Energy wrote in a note. Oil companies continue to funnel money into Norway and the Gulf of Mexico because they have cut costs, while in Brazil new pre-salt fields come online.

“Furthermore, we have seen some countries stabilising their output after yearlong series of declines, such as Mexico and China,” JBC said.