阿根廷Vaca Muerta出口面临巨大挑战

据石油世界网12月30日报道，阿根廷正在遭受越来越多的痛苦，因为它试图成为一个主要的石油和天然气出口国，这一目标被认为是可行的，这要归功于巨大的页岩资源，但这也需要承担巨大的挑战。

阿根廷拥有世界第二大页岩气资源，第四大石油资源。该国是与加拿大、中国和美国一起将页岩投入大规模生产的四个国家之一。瓦卡·穆尔塔（Vaca Muerta）已从2012-13年度的零产量猛增到2019年底的10万桶/天以上的石油和3500万立方米/天的天然气，在全面开发中所占的比重还不到10％。

这一增长扭转了该国石油和天然气产量的下降，原油从2017年的28年低点47.9万桶/日升至51.4万桶/日，天然气从2014年的1.137亿立方米/日的16年低点升至1.4亿立方米/日。结果：生产现在足以满足当地需求和出口盈余。

石油服务公司贝克·休斯(Baker Hughes)南美副总裁马里亚诺·加古洛(Marianogargiulo)估计，如果有足够的投资，瓦卡·穆塔的产量可能在未来五年内增长五倍，从2019年的少量出口额增加到2024年的每年200亿美元，可能更早。许多人说我们可以在五年内做到这一点，但如果我们做得好，那么我们可以在更短的时间内做到这一点。

在瓦卡穆尔塔的开发和目前处于勘探初期的海上项目的带动下，到2040年，阿根廷的石油日产量将增至130万桶。瓦卡穆尔塔庞大的资源基础和页岩质量以及包括雪佛龙，Equinor，道达尔和壳牌等跨国公司在内的运营商的经验为该预测提供了支持。

郝芬 译自 石油世界网

原文如下：

Argentina Vaca Muerta a big challenge to export

Argentina is suffering growing pains as it seeks to become a major oil and natural gas exporter, a goal thought feasible thanks to huge shale resources, but which also requires taking on big challenges.

Argentina has the second largest shale gas resources in the world, and the fourth in oil. It is one of only four countries to put shale into mass-scale production along with Canada, China and the US. Vaca Muerta has surged from zero production in 2012-13 to more than 100,000 b/d of oil and 35 million cu m/d of gas at the end of 2019, with still less than 10% of the play in full-scale development.

The growth has turned around a decline in the country's oil and gas production, taking crude to 514,000 b/d from a 28-year low of 479,000 b/d in 2017, and gas to 140 million cu m/d from a 16-year low of 113.7 million cu m/d in 2014. The result: production is now enough to meet local demand and export the surplus.

Mariano Gargiulo, South America vice president of Baker Hughes, an oil services company, estimates that with enough investment, Vaca Muerta's production could rise fivefold over the next five years, taking exports from minor amounts in 2019 to $20 billion a year in 2024, maybe sooner.

"Many people say we can do this in five years, but if we do it well, then we can do it in a lot less time," he said.

Argentina could increase oil production to 1.3 million b/d in 2040, led by the development of Vaca Muerta and offshore projects now in the early exploration phase. The forecast is supported by the large resource base and the quality of the shale in Vaca Muerta, as well as the experience of the operators, including multinationals like Chevron, Equinor, Total and Shell.