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石油交易商预测2020年经济将复苏

来源:互联网 时间:2019-11-27 09:30 点击:865

据能源世界网11月25日伦敦报道,原油交易商预计,明年的市场将大幅收紧,即使主要的统计机构预测产量将超过消费,石油库存也将上升。

对2020年全球经济增长的不同假设,可以解释这种差异的大部分原因。

国际能源署(IEA),美国能源信息署(EIA)和石油输出国组织都预测,到2020年石油市场将过剩。

这三个机构都预测明年非欧佩克的石油日供应量将比全球石油日消耗量增加约一百万桶。

这三个机构还预测非欧佩克产量将增长220万-240万桶/日,而消费量仅增长110万-140万桶/日。

如果这些预测是正确的,那么除非欧佩克成员国及其盟国进一步降低自己的产量,否则结果将是原油和成品油的库存大量增加。

但是,原油期货曲线的图表表明,贸易商和对冲基金将在明年开始削减库存。

布伦特原油的六个月行历差价交易已经收紧至每桶约3.50美元的现货溢价,高于一个月前的不足1.90美元和去年同期的1.10美元的期货溢价。

现货溢价(现货价格高于期货价格)通常与低库存/下降库存有关,而期货溢价(期货以下现货价格交易)通常与高/上升的库存有关。

自1990年初以来,所有交易日的六个月日历价差现在处于第91个百分点,这意味着贸易商预计未来6个月的产量将大幅下降。

郝芬 译自 能源世界网

原文如下:

OPINION: Oil traders bet on economic upswing in 2020

London: Crude oil traders are betting the market will tighten significantly next year, even as the major statistical agencies predict production will outstrip consumption and oil inventories will rise.

Most of the divergence can be explained by differing assumptions about global growth in 2020.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are all projecting that the oil market will be in surplus in 2020.

Each of the three agencies is forecasting that non-OPEC oil supplies will increase around 1 million barrels per day (bpd) faster than global oil consumption next year.

The three agencies are also forecasting non-OPEC production growth of 2.2-2.4 million bpd while consumption increases by only 1.1-1.4 million bpd .

If these forecasts are correct, the result will be a significant rise in stocks of crude and refined products, unless OPEC members and their allies reduce their own output even further.

But the shape of the crude futures curve suggests traders and hedge funds are instead anticipating a drawdown in stockpiles next year.

Brent's six-month calendar spread has tightened to a backwardation of around $3.50 per barrel, up from less than $1.90 at the same a month ago and a contango of $1.10 this time last year.

Backwardation (where spot prices trade above futures prices) is normally associated with low/falling inventories, while contango (spot prices trading below futures) is typically associated with high/rising stockpiles.

The six-month calendar spread is now in the 91st percentile for all trading days since the start of 1990, implying that traders anticipate production will fall significantly below consumption over the next six months.