IEA: 全球石油需求增长将从2025年开始放缓

据路透社11月13日伦敦报道，国际能源署（IEA）周三表示，随着燃油效率的提高和电动汽车的使用增加，全球石油需求增长预计将从2025年开始放缓，但不太可能在未来20年内达到峰值。

总部位于巴黎，为西方政府提供能源政策建议的IEA在其2040年年度《世界能源展望》中表示，尽管到本世纪30年代将出现明显放缓，但需求增长仍将继续。

该机构的核心设想是，结合现有的能源政策和宣布的目标，到2025年，石油需求从2018年的9700万桶/天平均每年增加100万桶/天。

到本世纪30年代，石油需求将以平均每天10万桶的速度增长，到2040年将达到1.06亿桶/天。

IEA表示:“2025年后，石油消费将出现实质性放缓，但这不会导致石油消费最终达到峰值。”该机构指出，卡车、航运、航空和石化行业的需求正在增长。

然而，随着乘用车使用人员更多地转向电动汽车，该类车型用油量预计将在本世纪20年代末达到峰值。

IEA预计，到2040年，全球将有3.3亿辆电动汽车上路，高于去年预测的3亿辆。这将使石油使用量减少约400万桶/天，而此前的预测为330万桶/天。

石油产量增幅最大的国家是美国、伊拉克和巴西。美国目前是世界上最大的石油生产国。

美国致密油产量预计将从2018年的600万桶/天增至2035年的每日1100万桶/天。

在未来十年的大部分时间里，欧佩克成员国和俄罗斯在石油生产中所占的份额预计将下降至47%，为上世纪80年代以来的最低水平。

报告在谈到IEA的核心设想时表示：“在这种情况下，维持供需平衡所需的油价，将在2030年升至每桶近90美元，在2040年升至每桶103美元。”

IEA预计，到2040年，初级能源需求将增长25%，其中可再生能源占一半，天然气占35%。

IEA的核心预测还认为，由于经济增长和人口增长，与能源相关的二氧化碳排放量不会在2040年达到峰值。

IEA表示，预计在2018年至2040年期间，全球温室气体排放量每年仅增加逾1亿吨，尽管低于2010年以来每年3.5亿吨的平均增幅，但仍不足以遏制全球气温上升。

裘寅 编译自 路透社

原文如下:

Global oil demand growth to slow from 2025-IEA

Global oil demand growth is expected to slow from 2025 as fuel efficiency improves and the use of electrified vehicles increases but is unlikely to peak in the next two decades, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

The Paris-based IEA, which advises Western governments on energy policy, said in its annual World Energy Outlook for the period to 2040 that demand growth would continue to increase even though there would be a marked slowdown in the 2030s.

The agency’s central scenario - which incorporates existing energy policies and announced targets - is for demand for oil to rise by around 1 million barrels per day (bpd) on average every year to 2025, from 97 million bpd in 2018.

Demand is then seen increasing by 0.1 million bpd a year on average during the 2030s to reach 106 million bpd in 2040.

“There is a material slowdown after 2025, but this does not lead to a definitive peak in oil use,” the IEA said, citing increased demand from trucks and the shipping, aviation and petrochemicals sectors.

Oil use in passenger cars is, however, seen peaking in the late 2020s as drivers switch to electric vehicles.

The IEA expects there will be 330 million electric cars on the road by 2040, up from an estimate of 300 million in last year’s outlook. That would displace around 4 million bpd of oil use, it said, compared to the 3.3 million bpd forecast previously.

The largest increases in oil production are seen coming from the United States, the world’s current biggest producer, as well as Iraq and Brazil.

U.S. tight crude oil production is seen rising to 11 million bpd in 2035 from 6 million bpd in 2018.

The share of oil production by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia is seen falling to 47% for much of the next decade, a level not seen since the 1980s.

“The oil price required to balance supply and demand in this scenario edges higher to nearly $90 a barrel in 2030 and $103 a barrel in 2040,” the report said of the IEA’s central scenario.

The IEA sees primary energy demand growing by a quarter by 2040 with renewable energy accounting for half of the rise and gas for 35%.

The IEA’s central scenario also does not see energy-related carbon dioxide emissions peaking by 2040 due to economic growth and population increases.

An expected rise of just over 100 million tonnes a year between 2018 and 2040, although lower than the average rate of increase since 2010 of 350 million tonnes a year, would not be enough of a reduction to curb global temperature rises, the IEA said.