沙特阿美首次预计石油需求2040年后将下降

根据美国彭博新闻社11月11日迪拜报道，根据沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司（沙特阿美）首次公开募股（IPO）招股说明书中的一项评估，全球石油需求可能在未来20年内达到顶峰，这表明沙特阿拉伯的观点正在慢慢改变。

沙特阿美没有提供自己的评估，而是使用了全球著名行业咨询公司IHS Markit Ltd.的预测，后者预测全球石油需求将在2035年左右见顶。在这种情况下，届时原油和其他石油液体的需求增长将“趋于平稳”。在说明书的附图中，沙特石油巨头表示2045年的全球石油需求将低于2040年。

沙特阿美的招股说明书于上周六晚间发布。在这家全球最大的石油生产商准备于12月初上市之际，招股说明书对该公司的财务业绩、战略和业务风险提供了前所未有的了解。不过，这并不包括政府计划出售多少股票，也不包括目标价格区间。这些数据预计将在11月17日以后对外公布。

虽然沙特阿美没有明确表示支持这一预测，但在这份658页的文件中加入这一预测将引起全球投资者的关注。沙特阿美的董事们认为，行业顾问IHS Markit提供的数据是“可靠的”。

招股书中的第二种需求设想是更快地摆脱对化石燃料的依赖导致石油需求在本世纪20年代末达到峰值。

李峻 编译自 彭博社

原文如下：

Aramco sees oil demand falling after 2040, per IPO prospectus

Global oil demand may peak within the next 20 years, according to an assessment included in the prospectus for Saudi Aramco’s initial public offering, suggesting views are slowly changing in the kingdom.

Rather than providing its own assessment, Aramco used a forecast from industry consultant IHS Markit Ltd. that forecasts oil demand to peak around 2035. Under that scenario, demand growth for crude and other oil liquids will be “leveling off” at that time. In an accompanying chart, the Saudi oil giant showed global oil demand lower in 2045 than in 2040.

The prospectus, published late on Saturday, gives unprecedented insight into Aramco’s financial performance, strategy and business risks as the world’s largest oil producer prepares for a share sale in early December. It didn’t include how many shares the government plans to sell or the target price range, however. That’s expected to follow on Nov. 17.

While Aramco didn’t explicitly endorse the forecast, its inclusion in the 658-page document will bring it the attention of investors worldwide. The company’s directors believe that the data provided by the industry consultant are “reliable.”

A second demand scenario in the prospectus assumes a faster transition away from fossil fuels that leads to peak oil demand occurring in the late 2020s.