据石油天然气杂志4月25日消息，根据雷斯塔能源的分析，美国的天然气产量将在2022年增长到创纪录的933亿立方英尺/天，并将继续增长，到2024年将超过1000亿立方英尺/天。雷斯塔表示，该国主要天然气盆地的表现将吸引投资者和市场的更多兴趣，因此，二氧化碳排放强度、资本效率和潜在瓶颈将受到关注。
2019年，美国天然气产量达到创纪录的921亿立方英尺/天，但随后由于疫情爆发，产量在2020年下降至908亿立方英尺/天。雷斯塔预计，2021年天然气产量将进一步下降至897亿立方英尺/天，但随着疫情的影响消退和主要天然气盆地的活动增加，这一趋势将迅速改变。
根据该分析，阿巴拉契亚盆地是美国2020年二氧化碳排放强度最低的地区，由于维持产出的再投资将降至最低水平，该地区将在2021年报告创纪录的资本效率。与此同时，海恩斯维尔气田未来将提供最大的天然气产量增长，除非有更多的管道获得批准，否则将面临瓶颈的风险。
从二氧化碳排放强度来看，阿巴拉契亚地区受益于完善和相对现代化的基础设施。随着e-frac车队的大量采用，雷斯塔能源的Scope 1上游排放分析将阿巴拉契亚地区评为美国二氧化碳排放强度最低的地区，2020年为7.1公斤二氧化碳/桶当量。
海恩斯维尔的二氧化碳强度为7.5公斤二氧化碳/桶当量，纽巴拉为10.6 公斤二氧化碳/桶当量，二叠纪盆地为10.9 公斤二氧化碳/桶当量，德克萨斯州南部伊格福特为11 公斤二氧化碳/桶当量，巴肯为20.7 公斤二氧化碳/桶当量。
雷斯塔能源表示，活跃在阿巴拉契亚地区的生产商也有望在2021年达到创纪录的资本效率水平，这一趋势将在未来几年持续下去。为了维持产量，到2021年，阿巴拉契亚地区的生产商只需要67%的上游再投资率。
虽然该地区最大的公共独立公司历史上一直试图锁定相对有利的衍生品头寸，但据雷斯塔估计，2016年是唯一一年，该盆地能够提供低于100%的上游再投资率，不包括对冲、融资活动和中游相关现金流的影响。
2019年下半年天然气市场突然下滑，对冲前上游再投资率上升至147%。该指数在2020年保持在100%以上，由于前期资本支出和下半年天然气价格的回升，该指数在年底前有所放缓。
根据一些最大、最成熟的生产商采用的新商业模式，整个盆地的上游再投资率将保持在100%以下。在基本情况下，预计未来阿巴拉契亚地区的长期上游再投资率平均为75%。
海恩斯维尔将成为美国最大的天然气产量增长来源，预计从2020年到2035年将增加约100亿立方英尺/天，同期增长86%。到2035年，该地区的天然气产量预计将占全国的21%，而2020年为13%。
雷斯塔能源预计，基于稳健的许可活动，保守的钻探水平，包括东德克萨斯州和波西尔中部在内的商业地点的不断增加的库存，以及未来五年的增长，该公司仍有望在未来5年内实现50亿立方英尺/天或更高的产量增长。
海恩斯维尔能够在与阿拉巴契亚地区的竞争中保持优势的一个关键因素是，与东北部生产商面临的瓶颈和中游项目取消相比，运营商可以相对轻松地将天然气从井口运输到墨西哥湾海岸市场。
裘寅 摘译自 OGJ
原文如下：
RYSTAD: A US GAS BOOM IS COMING
Natural gas production in the US is set to grow to a record 93,3 bcfd in 2022 and will continue to rise, exceeding 100 bcfd in 2024, according to Rystad Energy analysis. Performance of the country’s key gas basins will attract increased interest from investors and markets, as a result, with CO2 emissions intensity, capital efficiency, and potential bottlenecks drawing scrutiny, Rystad said.
US’s gas output reached a record 92.1 bcfd in 2019, but production subsequently declined to 90.8 bcfd in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Rystad expects 2021 volumes to fall even further, to 89.7 bcfd, but the trend will quickly change as the effect of the pandemic subsides and activity builds across the major gas basins.
The Appalachian basin was the US’s lowest in 2020 in terms of CO2 emissions intensity, according to the analysis, and the region is set to report a record-high capital efficiency in 2021 as reinvestment to maintain output will drop to its lowest level. Meanwhile, the Haynesville will offer the largest gas output growth going forward, risking bottlenecks unless more pipelines are approved.
Looking at CO2 emissions intensity, the Appalachian region benefits from well-established and relatively modern infrastructure. With the considerable adoption of e-frac fleets, Rystad Energy’s Scope 1 upstream emissions analysis scores the Appalachia region as lowest in CO2 emissions intensity in the US, with 7.1 kg of CO2/boe in 2020.
The Haynesville follows with a CO2 intensity of 7.5 kg CO2/boe, Niobara with 10.6 kg CO2/boe, the Permian basin with 10.9 kg CO2/boe, south Texas’ Eagle Ford with 11 kg CO2/boe, and the Bakken with 20.7 kg CO2/boe.
Producers active in the Appalachian can also expect capital efficiency levels rise to a record high in 2021, Rystad Energy said, a trend that will continue in the years to come. To maintain production, Appalachian producers will need an upstream reinvestment rate of only 67% in 2021.
While the largest public independents in the region have historically managed to lock in relatively favorable derivatives positions, 2016 was the only year that the basin was able to deliver an upstream reinvestment rate under 100%, excluding the impact of hedging, financing activities, and midstream-related cash flows, according to Rystad estimates.
The pre-hedging upstream reinvestment rate increased to 147% in 2019 when the gas market was hit by a sudden downturn in second-half 2019. It stayed above 100% in 2020, moderating toward yearend with a combination of frontloaded capex and a gas price recovery in the year’s second half.
Upstream reinvestment rates look set to stay well below 100% across the basin, based on the new business models adopted by some of the largest and most well-established producers. In the base case, an average long-term upstream reinvestment rate of 75% for the Appalachian region going forward is expected.
The Haynesville is set to become the largest source of gas output growth in the US, forecast to add about 10 bcfd from 2020 to 2035, growing by 86% during that time. The region is forecast to account for about 21% of the country’s gas production in 2035, compared to 13% in 2020.
It remains poised to see production growth of 5 bcfd or more over the next 5 years based on a conservative level of drilling on the back of robust permitting activity, an expanding inventory of commercial locations that includes East Texas and the mid-Bossier, and improving 2-month initial production results, Rystad Energy estimated.
A key factor in Haynesville’s ability to sustain an advantage against the Appalachian region will be to maintain the relative ease with which operators can transport gas from wellheads to Gulf coast markets, compared to the bottlenecks and midstream project cancellations faced by producers in the Northeast.
