据彭博新闻社2021年3月8日伦敦报道，全球最大的私有石油交易商维多集团表示，欧佩克+联盟3月4日出人意料地维持减产后的油价飙升，表明这个石油生产国集团仍然控制着市场。

欧佩克及其盟友3月4日决定将4月份减产措施基本维持在原有水平上，这一决定令市场大为震惊，这与市场将增加原油产量以满足不断增长需求的预期不符。基准布伦特原油期货价格在上周末跃升至每桶70美元。

维多集团亚洲主管迈克· 穆勒3月7日在咨询公司海湾情报主办的在线论坛上说，“市场告诉我们，欧佩克+已经掌握了主动权。我们的股票行情在整个第二季度都将加速上涨，这就是市场这么做的原因。”

去年，疫情导致三分之一的能源需求消失，拉低了油价，石油生产商和交易商陷入困境。过剩的原油大量流入仓库，导致库存激增，美国原油期货价格曾一度跌至零以下。

此后，欧佩克+实施了前所未有的减产，使价格回到大流行前的水平。欧佩克+决定维持产量限制，以支撑即期价格(未来几个月售出的石油的成本)，这表明该卡特尔计划通过供应不足的方式削减大量库存石油。

穆勒说，欧佩克+联盟的主要成员国俄罗斯此前曾表示担心，此举将使美国的竞争对手抢占市场份额。然而，美国页岩生产商不太可能增加产量。

他说，“美国在用钻机数量仍远不能支持美国恢复到他们在2019年结束时达到的1300万桶/天的产量水平。”

在穆勒3月7日发表上述讲话之前，沙特阿拉伯表示已经挫败了对其一些设施的无人机和导弹袭击。布伦特原油在3月8日早盘交易中飙升至每桶70美元以上，随后回吐涨幅。

穆勒表示，需求的进一步增长仍可能推高石油价格。

李峻 编译自 彭博新闻社

原文如下：

Trader Says USA Shale Producers Unlikely to Ramp Up Output

Oil’s surge following OPEC+’s surprise move to maintain cuts in supply shows the producers’ group is in charge of the market, Vitol Group said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies shocked the market on Thursday when they opted to keep output curbs largely in place, belying expectations that they would pump more crude to meet rising demand. Benchmark Brent futures jumped toward $70 a barrel at the end of the week.

“The market is telling us that OPEC+ have control,” Mike Muller, Vitol’s head of Asia, said Sunday in an online forum hosted by consultant Gulf Intelligence. “We’re going to get a stock-draw that is going to accelerate through the second quarter and that’s why the market is doing what it’s doing.”

Oil producers and traders were left reeling last year after the coronavirus pandemic wiped out a third of energy demand, dragging down prices. Surplus crude flooded into storage, swelling stockpiles to the point where U.S. futures dropped below zero.

OPEC+ has since implemented unprecedented production cuts, returning prices to pre-pandemic levels. Its decision to maintain output restrictions to support prompt prices -- the cost of barrels sold in the coming months -- indicates the group aims to cut into that mass of stored oil by undersupplying the market.

Key OPEC+ member Russia previously voiced concerns that such a move would allow rival drillers in the U.S. to seize market share. Yet shale producers are unlikely to ramp up output, Muller said.

“U.S. rig counts are still nowhere close to supporting the U.S. returning to anywhere like the 13 million barrels a day we closed 2019 at,” he said.

Muller spoke Sunday before Saudi Arabia said it had thwarted drone and missile attacks on some of its facilities. Brent crude surged past $70 a barrel in early trading on Monday before erasing gains.

Further increases in demand could still push prices higher, according to Muller.