据油气工程1月27日消息称，DNV GL发布的最新研究发现，随着油气公司寻求长期转型，油气行业预计今年将增加对未来能源系统的投资。
创纪录的三分之二(66%)的高级油气专业人士表示，他们的组织将积极适应2021年的低碳能源组合，而2018年这一比例仅为44%。据DNV GL称，约57%的人计划增加对可再生能源的投资，高于去年的44%，一半(48%)的公司预计将增加对绿色或脱碳天然气的投资。
只有五分之一（21％）的人表示，他们将在2021年增加对石油项目的投资，因为石油行业越来越认同世界对石油的需求已经达到或将在中短期内达到峰值的观点。对天然气投资增长的预期稳定在37%。
据DNV GL表示，大多数高级油气专业人士预计，这些投资转变将导致行业更广泛的重塑。十分之八（78％）的人认为，未来的行业整合将增加，高于一年前的64%。战略调整还可能涉及资产和业务的出售，63%的人预计将进行更多的分拆、剥离和分拆，高于去年的46%。
尽管发生了COVID-19大流行以及随后的石油和天然气市场崩溃，但对行业增长信心的下降却带来了转型投资。只有39%的高级油气专业人士对2021年的行业增长有信心，低于去年的66%。
DNV GL集团总裁兼首席执行官Remi Eriksen说道：“从2020年开始，从欧洲到中国，净零气候政策开始大量涌现，并在美国引起关注。长期来看，净零排放政策有潜力推动全球能源系统的深度脱碳，它们已经改变了油气行业的发展方向。”
石油和天然气行业正在经历12年来的第三次重大衰退，但2021年的前景受到了这次衰退可能与以往不同的影响。到2021年，该行业最大的不同也许是资本从化石燃料转移。
Eriksen表示：“通过COVID-19大流行的影响，金融市场已经看到了石油需求可能出现的峰值，并且越来越多地考虑了社会对低碳未来的看法。脱碳已经从迫在眉睫的事情转变为当务之急，而且有迹象表明，我们的行业可能会投资进行转型，而不是摆脱目前的危机。”
据DNV GL称，2021年，削减成本仍将是全球的首要任务(96%)，但油气行业已经开始精简。63%的受访者表示，如果2021年的平均油价在40 - 50美元/桶之间，他们的公司仍将获得可接受的利润。然而，有迹象表明，传统的成本削减方法正在达到极限。
DNV GL副总裁Hans Kristian Danielsen表示：“该行业可用的成本效率杠杆的问题在于，大多数杠杆已经被拉得很厉害。在过去七年中，成本效率一直是优先考虑的问题。对于某些人来说，从海绵中挤出更多的水变得越来越困难。五分之四的高级油气专业人士表示，2021年削减成本将比以往任何时候都更具挑战性。”
值得注意的是，石油和天然气行业并没有像2014年经济低迷后那样严重缩减支出。尽管预计在未来一年维持或增加资本支出的受访者比例已从2020年的72%降至62%，但这远高于上次经济衰退后的43%。
在上一次经济衰退期间，石油行业削减成本，等待石油需求上升，然后重新投资石油和天然气。尽管一些业内人士期望快速复苏，但DNV GL的研究表明，大多数人都将目光投向了更长远的转型投资，即那些将使行业脱碳的项目。
Danielsen表示：“公司在进行转型投资时会押注长期，旨在应对世界各地以不同速度进行的多种转型。虽然我们看到2021年对行业增长的信心出现了崩溃，但我们看到对未来脱碳机会的信心越来越大。”
朱佳妮 摘译自 油气工程
原文如下：
DNV GL: Oil and gas industry to increase green investments
New research published by DNV GL finds that the oil and gas industry expects to boost investment in the energy systems of the future this year, as companies seek to transform for the long term.
A record two-thirds (66%) of senior oil and gas professionals report that their organisation is actively adapting to a less carbon-intensive energy mix in 2021, up from just 44% in 2018. Some 57% plan to increase investment in renewables, up from 44% last year, half (48%) expect to increase investment in green or decarbonised gas, DNV GL states.
Just a fifth (21%) say they will increase investment in oil projects in 2021, as the sector increasingly comes to terms with the notion that the world’s demand for oil has peaked or will peak in the short to medium term. Expectations for an increase in natural gas investment remain steady at 37%.
According to DNV GL, the majority of senior oil and gas professionals expect these shifts in investment will lead to a wider reshaping of the industry. Eight-in-10 (78%) believe there will be increased consolidation in the year ahead, up from 64% one year ago. Strategic reorientation may also involve asset and business sales, with 63% expecting more demergers, divestments and spin-offs, up from 46% last year.
Transformational investments come despite a crash in confidence for industry growth following the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent oil and gas market crash. Only 39% of senior oil and gas professionals are confident about industry growth in 2021, down from 66% last year.
“Net-zero climate policies began to proliferate in 2020, from Europe to China, and made it onto the table in the US. Long term, net zero policies have the potential to drive deep decarbonisation of the world’s energy system, and they are already changing the direction of the oil and gas industry,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and Chief Executive Officer of DNV GL.
The oil and gas industry is moving through its third major downturn in 12 years, but the outlook for 2021 is influenced by the possibility that this downturn may be different from those of the past. Perhaps the most significant difference for the industry for 2021, is the shift in capital away from fossil fuels.
“The financial markets – through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic – have seen what peak oil demand could look like, and are increasingly factoring in changing sentiment in society towards a decarbonised future. Decarbonisation has moved from something on the horizon to an immediate priority, and there are signs that our sector may invest to transform rather than cut its way out of the present crisis,” said Eriksen.
According to DNV GL, cost cutting will still be a universal priority (96%) for 2021, but the industry is already lean. A resilient 63% say their organisation will still achieve acceptable profits if the oil price averages between US$40 to 50 per bbl in 2021. However, there are signs that traditional cost cutting methods are hitting their limits.
“The trouble with the industry’s available cost efficiency levers is that most of them have been pulled quite hard already. Cost efficiency has been an uninterrupted priority in each of the past seven years. For some, it is getting harder to squeeze any more water from the sponge,” said Hans Kristian Danielsen, Vice President, DNV GL. “Four fifths of senior oil and gas professionals say cost cutting will be more challenging than ever in 2021.”
Significantly, the oil and gas industry is not hitting the spending brakes as hard as it did after the downturn in 2014. While the proportion of respondents expecting to maintain or increase capex in the year ahead has fallen to 62% – down from 72% going into 2020 – this is much higher than the 43% recorded following the last downturn.
The industry cut costs and waited for oil demand to rise during the last downturn, then renewed investment in oil and gas. While some in the industry are expecting a quick recovery, DNV GL’s research shows that most are looking longer term to transformational investments – to projects that will decarbonise the industry.
“Companies are betting long term when making transformational investments, aiming to navigate the multiple transitions taking place at different speeds around the world. While we see a crash in confidence for industry growth in 2021, we see growing confidence in the opportunities that lie in a decarbonised future,” said Danielsen.
