据油价网2020年5月24日休斯顿报道，4月20日，西德克萨斯中质原油基准价格不仅跌破了零，而且还暴跌到了每桶负37.63美元。这次令人震惊的油价暴跌是持续数月的一系列不幸事件的结果，首先是疫情蔓延导致全球石油需求下降。当欧佩克主要成员国沙特和俄罗斯开始谈判，决定应对全球石油需求下滑的策略时，谈判很快就演变成了意见分歧，然后爆发了全面的油价战。这场价格战导致了全球市场上大规模的石油供应过剩，全球石油市场上每天大约有1000万桶石油的供过于求。虽然石油市场已经从负增长区域反弹，但油价仍然很低，导致油价崩溃的问题——疫情大流行、大规模石油供应过剩和石油储存能力严重短缺——仍然存在。这导致了一些不同寻常的石油易货交易，路透社日前在一篇报道中警告称：“卖家要小心：价格暴跌会引发石油和天然气交易的以货易货。”
暴跌至21年低点的油价已导致潜在的油气田买家试图以更高的价格重新谈判交易，最初出现的例子就是卖家被迫出手。据路透社报道，“当大多数石油公司都在削减预算、股息和人员来保存现金的时候，卖方面临着一个艰难的选择：是提高交易价格，还是冒着完全失去交易的风险。”
路透社的这篇报道援引了总部位于英国的独立石油公司Premier石油公司的例子，该公司在北海资产交易的问题上处境艰难(甚至可以说他们处于困境)。Premier石油公司现在正在为这些资产寻求一个比他们之前同意支付给英国石油公司6.25亿美元价格更低的价格。他们并不孤单。据路透社报道，“希腊Energean油气公司也在做同样的事情，7亿美元从爱迪生公司购买资产。” 加拿大皇家银行石油和天然气股票分析师艾尔·斯坦顿告诉记者，这些实例是趋势的一部分——“石油工业正在重新审视其在疫情来袭前的报价。”
尽管一些公司正在寻求对他们已签署的交易的折扣，但其它公司则完全放弃了这些交易。5月份，法国石油巨头道达尔公司放弃了收购美国西方石油公司(Oxy)在加纳的资产，原因是道达尔公司与Oxy的部分交易出现了问题。道达尔公司就这一决定发表了一份声明，称“道达尔集团面临着非同寻常的市场环境和缺乏可见性”。
仍在谈判桌上的许多交易，在不久的将来都有失败的危险，但也有一些成功的重新谈判。据路透社报道，“在当前油价暴跌期间，私人持股的Hilcorp 能源公司和私募股权公司HitecVision公司分别与能源巨头BP和道达尔公司成功地重新谈判了交易。”路透社援引一位业内银行家的话说，“卖家，尤其是石油巨头，一直是非常有建设性。”
尽管对石油交易来说，这并不全是坏消息，但近期的前景仍然相当黯淡。尽管市场开始反弹，但在我们进入可能长达数年的衰退之际，前面的路还很长，很不稳定。由于许多石油公司已经宣布破产或关闭大量油井，我们正面临着漫长的复苏之路。话虽这么说，许多行业有希望获得成功的人士表示，石油公司和在用井数量的减少为在需求恢复时油价高企带来希望。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Oil Companies Forced To Renegotiate Deals Or Risk Losing It All
On April 20, the West Texas Intermediate crude benchmark did not just fall below zero, it plummeted to negative $37.63 a barrel. This stunning price crash was the result of a months-long series of unfortunate events, starting with a global decrease in oil demand spurred by the spread of COVID-19. When the leading OPEC+ countries of Saudi Arabia and Russia initiated talks to decide on a strategy to contend with the global slump in oil demand, the talks quickly developed into disagreement and then an all-out oil price war. That price war led to a massive oil glut to the tune of approximately about 10 million barrels of oversupply on the global oil market per day. While oil markets have bounced back from negative territory, oil prices remain low, and the issues that caused the crash - a global pandemic, a massive oil glut, and a severe shortage in oil storage capacity - persist. This has led to some unusual oil bartering, as reported by Reuters this week in an article that issued a warning: “Sellers beware: Price collapse triggers bartering over oil and gas deals.”
The collapse in oil prices to 21-year lows has led potential buyers of oil and gas fields to try and renegotiate deals at higher prices, with the first examples emerging of sellers having their hand forced. According to Reuters, “when most oil companies are slashing budgets, dividends, and headcounts to preserve cash, sellers are facing a difficult choice between sweetening the deal or risking losing it altogether.”
The report cites the example of Premier Oil, a UK-based independent oil company that is in a tough spot (you could even say they’re over a barrel) concerning a pending deal over assets in the North Sea. Premier is now seeking a cheaper price than the $625 million they had already agreed to pay BP for the assets. And they’re not alone. According to Reuters, “Energean is doing the same with a $700 million purchase from Edison.” Oil and gas equity analyst Al Stanton of the Royal Bank of Canada told reporters that these instances are part of a trend in which “the oil industry is revisiting its ‘before coronavirus’ (BC) bids.”
While some companies are seeking discounts on deals they had already sealed, others are walking away from them altogether. This month, French supermajor Total abandoned its purchase of Occidental Petroleum’s assets in Ghana, which hit a glitch over part of the French firm’s wider deal with U.S. Occidental. The company released a statement concerning this decision which cited “the extraordinary market environment and the lack of visibility that the group faces.”
Many deals that remain on the table are in danger of falling through in the near future, but there have also been a number of successful renegotiations. “Privately held Hilcorp Energy and private-equity firm HitecVision have successfully renegotiated deals with energy majors BP and Total, respectively, during the current oil price meltdown,” reports Reuters, before quoting an industry banker that says, “sellers, especially the majors, have certainly been very constructive.”
While it’s not all bad news for oil deals, the outlook remains pretty bleak for the near future. Even as markets begin to bounce back, it’s a long, volatile road ahead as we head into what will likely be a years-long recession. As many oil companies have already declared bankruptcy or shut-in large numbers of wells, we’re looking at a long road to recovery. That being said, there are a lot of industry hopefuls that say that the decreased number of oil companies and active wells hold promise for high oil prices when demand returns.
