据今日石油2020年2月13日挪威奥斯陆报道，挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司

（Rystad Energy）发表的一份分析报告显示，中国暴发的新冠状肺炎疫情将使今年全球石油需求增长至少减少四分之一，而OPEC+委员会提出的每日减产60万桶的计划远远不足以平衡市场。

分析报告说，在今年的第一和第二季度，全球石油生产都将出现盈余。雷斯塔能源公司表示，其估计显示，今年第一季度生产商的石油日产量将增加70万桶。雷斯塔能源公司之前的预估是大致平衡的第一季度盈余为10万桶/天。

除非进一步减产，否则全球第二季石油库存可能增加130万桶/天。这意味着，即使OPEC+减产措施在第二季实施，全球石油库存仍将有70万桶/天的盈余。

李峻 编译自 今日石油

原文如下：

Global oil stocks to pile up as proposed OPEC cuts are no match for coronavirus induced surplus

The coronavirus outbreak in China will curb global oil demand growth by at least a quarter this year, and the production cuts of 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) proposed by an OPEC+ committee are far from enough to balance the market, a Rystad Energy analysis shows.

Both the first and second quarters of 2020 will see global oil production surpluses. The energy research and business intelligence company said its estimate shows that the first quarter of the year will see producers left with a stock build of 700,000 bpd. Our previous estimate was for a more or less balanced first quarter with a 100,000 bpd surplus.

The second quarter threatens to build oil stocks by 1.3 million bpd unless production is reduced further. That means that even if the OPEC+ output cuts are implemented in the second quarter, there will still be a sizeable surplus of 700,000 bpd.