据路透社12月7日报道，欧佩克及其合作伙伴已同意在1月份将石油日产量提高50万桶，此后将每月对产量进行评估和调整。这一增产幅度远低于去年4月计划的200万桶/天的增幅，但与2019年11月初相比，可以说是一个重大转变，要知道，当时欧佩克似乎准备在未来三个月保持产量不变。

这一转变是对新冠肺炎疫苗试验成功的消息做出的反应，这有可能促成一个快速免疫计划，有助于商业活动和国际航空旅行恢复正常。

自11月初以来，布伦特原油期货价格已经上涨了超过11美元/桶(30%)，因为交易员们预计，石油消费将更快地恢复，全球库存将大幅减少。

此外，布伦特原油的六个月期价差已从11月初的每桶2.50美元的期货溢价转为逾0.40美元的现货溢价，因为交易员预计2021年将出现更多的供应不足。2021年单月价差均已转为现货溢价，这将促使交易商和炼油厂清空可自由支配的库存，只保留维持可靠运营所需的最低库存。

价差迅速收窄和现货溢价加剧预示着，石油市场在2021年将大幅收窄，基准价格正加速走向峰值。在这种情况下，与几周前相比，欧佩克+成员国有更大的空间来实现在不增加库存或价格下跌的情况下增加产量。

油价快速攀升将刺激美国石油钻探活动从明年第二季度初进一步复苏，并从第三季度末增加原油产量。在过去的十年中，页岩油的产量出现了两次大幅增长，之后又经历了两次剧烈的缩减，这使得欧佩克+对继续限制产量保持谨慎态度，并在美国页岩油产量再次大幅上升的情况下重新考虑市场份额。

沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯在如何更好地应对页岩油产量不断上升的问题上存在分歧，这是两国在3月和4月爆发价格战的根源。这场大战爆发时，布伦特原油价格在每桶50美元至60美元之间，如果当前油价继续攀升至55美元，同样的一些分歧可能会再次出现。

与此同时，欧佩克+可能会提高自己的产量，以抢占美国页岩油公司增长的先机，一方面确保油价不会过快上涨，另一方面努力在复苏的石油需求中占据更大份额。

尽管月度产量评估存在不确定性，但它将使欧佩克+能够随着疫苗的推出、国际航班的恢复和石油消费的恢复，让产量跟上市场恢复的速度。

2021年1月份产量小幅增长，以及未来几个月进一步增产的迹象，将有助于缓和欧佩克内部产量分配公平性方面的分歧。最近几周，阿联酋抱怨其减产比例超过了沙特和俄罗斯。

根据最新的数据，在8月到10月的三个月里，阿联酋的产量与去年同期相比平均下降了近20%。相比之下，根据美国能源信息署(EIA）11月10日《短期能源展望》的数据，俄罗斯的产量下降了12%，沙特阿拉伯仅下降了4%。提高集体目标，将消除一些在分配方面的分歧，同时通过允许集团所有成员提高产出和收入，规范成员国以往的违规行为。

王佳晶 摘译自 路透社

原文如下：

OPEC+ to boost output as oil market tightens

OPEC and its partners have agreed to raise their collective production by 0.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, with output to be reviewed and adjusted at monthly intervals thereafter.

The increase is much smaller than the 2 million bpd scheduled last April, but marks a significant shift from the start of November, when the group seemed poised to leave output unchanged for another three months.

The shift responds to news of successful coronavirus vaccine trials, which could lead to a rapid immunisation programme and resumption of more normal business activity and international air travel.

Brent futures prices have already climbed by more than $11 per barrel (30%) since the start of November as traders anticipate a faster recovery in oil consumption and a sharper drawdown in global inventories.

And Brent’s six-month calendar spread has moved into backwardation of more than $0.40 per barrel, from a contango of $2.50 at the start of November, as traders expect a larger production-consumption deficit in 2021.

Spreads for every month next year have moved into backwardation, which will prompt traders and refiners to empty tank farms of discretionary inventories, keeping only the minimum needed to maintain reliable operations.

The combination of rising spot prices and tightening spreads is the most bullish since early January, when U.S.-China trade tensions were easing and before the risk of a devastating global pandemic was appreciated.

The combination of rapidly tightening spreads and an intensifying backwardation indicates the oil market is expected to tighten significantly next year and that benchmark prices are accelerating towards a peak.

In this context, OPEC+ members had more scope than a few weeks ago to increase production without risking an increase in inventories or a fall in prices.

Rapid price escalation will stimulate a further recovery in U.S. oil drilling from early in the second quarter and add to U.S crude oil production from the end of the third quarter, given normal delays.

Two shale booms in the last decade, followed by two wrenching busts, have left OPEC+ wary about continuing to restrict group production and concede market share if U.S. shale output starts to rise again significantly.

Disagreements between Saudi Arabia and Russia about how best to respond to rising shale production lay at the root of the volume war unleashed between the two countries in March and April.

The volume war broke out when Brent prices were between $50 and $60, and some of the same disagreements are likely to re-emerge if prices continue climbing towards $55.

In the meantime, OPEC+ will likely raise its own production to pre-empt increases by U.S. shale firms, trying to ensure prices do not rise too fast and the group captures a large share of recovering oil demand.

Monthly production reviews, while diplomatically messy and heightening uncertainty, will allow OPEC+ to match the rate of output increases with the vaccine roll out, resumption of international flying and recovery in oil consumption.

GROUP COHESION

The small output increase in January, with hints of further increases in later months, will also help smooth over disagreements within the group about the fairness of output allocations.

In recent weeks, the United Arab Emirates has complained privately that it has cut production proportionately more than either Saudi Arabia or Russia (tmsnrt.rs/3gaKcal).

In the three months between August and October, the latest for which data is available, UAE production was down by an average of almost 20% compared with the same period a year earlier.

By contrast, Russia’s output was down 12% and Saudi Arabia’s was down by just 4%, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“Short-Term Energy Outlook”, EIA, Nov. 10).

Raising the collective target will blunt some of these differences over allocations while also regularising or legitimising past non-compliance by allowing all group members to boost output and earnings.