中国石化新闻网讯 据10月19日CNBC报道，国际货币基金组织（IMF）在周一发布的最新地区展望报告中，下调了对中东和中亚地区经济复苏的预期，预计该地区整体经济将收缩4.1%，这比4月份时的预期减少了1.3个百分点。

国际货币基金组织中东和中亚部主任阿祖尔(Jihad Azour)指出，该地区受到新冠肺炎疫情和油价暴跌的冲击，不过，石油进口国和出口国之间的经济损失存在巨大差异。他强调："这两大冲击导致经济活动大幅下滑，并且石油出口国和进口国的情况有所不同。平均而言，石油出口国将出现6.6%的负增长，而进口国将出现1%的负增长。”

IMF表示，油价将继续承压。众所周知，油价将是石油出口国复苏的最重要因素，尤其是沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克、伊朗、阿联酋、巴林和科威特等国家，石油占收入的很大一部分。尽管油价已从今年3月的历史性暴跌中恢复，但国际基准布伦特原油的交易价格仍比疫情爆发前的水平低近40%。周一上午，伦敦交易市场布伦特原油价格为每桶42.87美元。

IMF认为油价不会很快大幅反弹，预计2021年油价将在每桶40 - 50美元之间。据该组织表示，这只是欧佩克主要国家沙特平衡预算所需的每桶80美元价格的一半。

与此同时，同样值得关注的是需求的复苏，另外还有可替代能源的供应情况。

石油需求前景依然严峻，因新一波冠状肺炎疫情正在世界各地爆发，加上美国财政刺激计划和美国总统大选也存在不确定性。国际能源署(International Energy Agency) 9月份将今年全球石油需求预期下调至每天9170万桶，较上年同期减少了840万桶，大于IEA在8月份报告中预测的810万桶的削减规模。

欧佩克对今年的石油市场展望要更加糟糕，上月将其对2020年全球石油日均需求的预期下调至9020万桶，较上年同期减少了950万桶。欧佩克认为，石油需求的前景“疲弱不振”，并警告称，风险仍然较高且倾向于下行。

在谈到走出这场危机的“最佳途径”方面，阿祖尔强调，多样化和继续采取新冠肺炎疫情安全措施是加强该地区经济的关键，另外一个重点是为青年提供机会。

考虑到该地区一些最重要的非石油行业(旅游、交通、零售和房地产)受到打击，多元化将是一个特别的挑战。仅航空旅行预计至少要到2023年才能恢复到疫情爆发前的水平。

根据IMF的报告，从2000年到2016年，海湾合作委员会成员国的实际GDP平均增长4.7%，其中非石油部门增长仅占6.4%。依赖石油的海湾国家预计今年实际GDP将收缩6%，非石油部门将收缩5.7%。

王佳晶 摘译自 CNBC

原文如下：

IMF reveals 2021 forecasts for oil prices and the Middle East economy

The International Monetary Fund downgraded its outlook for Middle East and Central Asian economic recovery, predicting a 4.1% contraction for the region as a whole — 1.3 percentage points worse than its previous assessment in April — in its latest regional outlook report released Monday.

Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia department, noted a large disparity in economic loss between oil importing and exporting countries as the region has been hit by the coronavirus pandemic and a plunge in oil prices.

“Combined together, those two shocks led to a sharp decline in economic activity that is different between oil exporting and oil importing countries,” Azour told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble via video call on Sunday. “On average, we will see growth going negative by 6.6% for oil exporting countries, and negative growth of 1% for all importing countries,” he said, adding that there will be differences between the countries within each group.

Oil prices will remain under pressure, IMF says

Oil prices will be the most important factor for oil exporters’ recovery, particularly states like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, for whom the commodity makes up the majority of revenue. While prices have recovered from their historic plunge in March of this year, international benchmark Brent crude is still trading nearly 40% below pre-pandemic levels. Brent stood at $42.87 per barrel on Monday morning in London.

And the IMF doesn’t see oil prices staging a dramatic recovery anytime soon, predicting prices in the $40 to $50 range in 2021. That’s still half the $80 per barrel figure OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget, according to the fund.

“The projections for oil prices are in the corridor between $40 to $45 for ... early next year, and will be between $40 to $50” next year overall, Azour said. “I think what is going to be also important to watch is the recovery in demand. That proved to be an important factor in what we saw this year, in addition to the supply that could come from alternative energies.”

The oil demand outlook remains grim amid new waves of coronavirus gripping regions of the world and uncertainty about U.S. fiscal stimulus and the U.S. presidential election. The International Energy Agency in September cut its outlook for worldwide oil demand to 91.7 million barrels per day this year, a daily contraction of 8.4 million barrels year-on-year and more than the contraction of 8.1 million predicted in the agency’s August report.

OPEC posted an even worse outlook for this year, slashing its view for global oil demand last month to an average of 90.2 million barrels per day in 2020, a contraction of 9.5 million barrels per day year-on-year. The group of 13 oil-producing countries described the outlook for the commodity’s demand as “anemic,” and warned that risks remain “elevated and skewed to the downside.”

‘The best way to get out of this crisis’

Azour stressed diversification and continued coronavirus safety measures as key to strengthening the region’s economies, with a focus on providing opportunities for its youth population.

“I think what is important for the region going forward is we have now a situation where it’s clear that diversifying the economy is the best way to get out of this crisis,” Azour said.

Diversification will be a particular challenge given the blow to some of the region’s most vital non-oil sectors: tourism, transportation, retail and real estate. Air travel alone isn’t expected to rebound to pre-pandemic levels until at least 2023.

Real GDP growth for GCC states averaged 4.7% from 2000 to 2016, of which non-oil growth made up a mere 6.4%, according to the IMF’s report. But the oil-reliant Gulf states are now expected to see a 6% real GDP contraction this year, with non-oil sectors comprising 5.7% of that loss.