据今日油价10月14日报道，全球石油市场的持续疲软似乎加剧了欧佩克内部的紧张局势。今年年初，由于全球疫情和原油库存高企，在莫斯科和利雅得的斡旋下，内部分歧搁置，欧佩克与沙特达成减产协议。

从对2021年原油价格的乐观报告，乃至国际能源署(IEA)今天发布的《2020年世界能源报告》(World Energy 2020 Report)来看，市场的乐观情绪似乎正在增强，但石油市场的现实情况要糟糕得多。欧洲封锁的危机是真实存在的，它再次打击了全球需求，并对经济造成沉重打击。

全球范围内的财政宽松和补贴使一些需求得以维持，但主要经济体的财务状况依然糟糕，这可以从不断上升的失业水平中可以看出。这不仅会减少经合组织对石油的需求，也会减少对亚洲制造业的需求。

随着沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和其他欧佩克成员国再次开放石油供应，欧佩克+似乎在从不同的角度看待问题。欧佩克+成员国是减产遵守率仍在100%左右，但未来几个月这个数字将会下降。

目前还没有人在谈论一场新的油价战争，但这已是不争的事实，一些产油国现在已经厌倦了通过限制自己的产量来对抗其它产油国的过剩供应。亚洲的石油进口国，尤其是中国和印度，一直在从这种低油价环境中获利，把石油储备填满。此外，经济合作与发展组织(OECD)的经济下滑，将使亚洲每日数百万桶的预期需求面临风险。

与之前的评估相比，预计第三季度至2021年一季度的全球石油和石油产品需求不会出现健康上升。全球石油储备水平仍然很高，国际贸易商公开质疑目前欧佩克向市场投放更多石油的举措，因为目前市场并没有这些需求。到2021年1月，之前约1000万桶/天的减产将降至600万桶/天。可即使是现有的削减措施也不够有力，而放松削减措施只会延长当前疲软的市场状况。

对于欧佩克+协议的两位主要缔造者来说，现在是一个令人担忧的时刻。有人可能会说，利雅得和莫斯科陷入了困境，因为无论它们试图做什么，市场都可能过于疲弱，无法做出反应，最终反过来伤害他们。如果石油市场不能很快复苏，沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯都将面临一场规模未知的金融危机。沙特阿拉伯得到了其主要盟友阿联酋的支持。目前的的油价已无法维持两国的政府战略。

沙特政府预算的最新报告是基于每桶50美元的假设，但从现实情况来看，这过于乐观了，因为目前油价处于每桶40美元的低位。对俄罗斯来说，其经济受到了来自各方的打击，石油和天然气疲软，全球需求下降，经济多元化进程停滞不前。

然而，沙特阿拉伯所面临的局势似乎不存在直接的战略。如果没有更高的原油价格，不仅沙特的旗舰公司沙特阿美(Saudi Aramco)会受到影响，多数政府项目也会受到影响。这家全球最大的石油公司已经搁置了几个重大的新项目，同时重新评估了其它项目的投资水平。备受瞩目的海上项目，如红海项目或在Ras Al Khair建立新船厂的项目，进展不再那么快，显示出一些内部制约因素。

沙特阿美也无法为正在进行的“沙特2030愿景”(Saudi Vision 2030)项目提供资金。经济多样化是必要的，但没有资金，项目将被推迟甚至冻结。国际社会对沙特和俄罗斯政府债券的兴趣正在减弱，这已经表明沙特的财政正在艰难挣扎状态。

随着内部危机的迫近，两国可能被迫走上完全不同的道路。利雅得对市场份额或油价采取更激进的举措并非不可想象。目前对国际石油公司和油田服务造成严重破坏的金融冲击也对国家石油公司造成了冲击。收入和利润仍然很高，但国家财政都急需现金，俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯之间看似天造地设，但现在一切都分崩离析了。

在国内财政压力和失业率上升的情况下，如果合作不能带来必要的回报，那么一场新的油价战争的选择也不是不可想象的。全球能源转型和化石燃料撤资已经在消除油气行业的疲软点。合并是有必要的，也许俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯在未来会遵循马尔萨斯式的达尔文主义方法。这一次，独立的国际石油公司和一些实力较弱的欧佩克+产油国都将遭受损失。本周发表的声明称，沙特阿拉伯希望成为最后一个石油生产国或“唯一的幸存者”。这样看来，接下来的几个月，减产协议可能会取消，石油市场必须做好准备。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Why Saudi Arabia May Be Forced To Start Another Oil Price War

The ongoing weakness of global oil markets seems to be stoking tensions within OPEC+, and a split within its leadership is now imminent. From the start of this year’s Moscow-Riyadh brokered OPEC+ production cut deal, internal differences have been kept at bay by a global pandemic and high crude oil storage volume. Market optimism now seems to be growing, from bullish reports about next year’s crude oil prices and even today’s IEA World Energy 2020 Report. But the reality of oil markets is far bleaker. The threat of European lockdowns is real, hitting global demand again while taking a heavy toll on the economy. Financial easing and subsidies worldwide have kept some demand in place, but the financials of major economies are bleak, which can be seen in the rising level of unemployment. This will not only remove OECD demand for oil but also for Asian manufacturing. OPEC+ seems to be looking at things differently though, with oil taps in Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other OPEC+ member countries opening once again. OPEC production cuts compliance is still around 100%, but the coming months will see that figure fall.

Nobody is speaking about a new oil price war yet, but the writing is on the wall with some producers now fed up with strangling their own production to counter the overproduction of others. Asian importers, especially China and India, have been reaping the rewards of this low price environment, filling their oil storage tanks to the brim. Although most Asian importers now seem to be content with storage. An OECD economic downturn will put several million barrels per day of expected Asian demand at risk.

In contrast to former assessments, Q32020-Q12021 is not forecast to see a healthy upturn of oil and petroleum products demand worldwide. Global oil storage levels are still high, while the world is awash with oil and gas. International traders are openly questioning the current OPEC+ move to put extra oil on the market, as there is no current need for these barrels. In January 2021, the former production cut of around 10 million bpd (May 2020) will fall to 6 million bpd. As stated in May, not even the existing cuts are sufficient and an easing of cuts will only prolong the current weak market conditions.

It is a worrying time for the two main architects of the OPEC+ agreement. One could say that Riyadh and Moscow are caught in a Catch22 situation, as whatever they try to do, the market is likely too weak to react and will come back to hurt both parties. Saudi Arabia, supported by its main ally UAE, and Russia are both looking at a financial crash of unknown magnitude if oil markets don’t recover soon. Oil prices are currently too low to sustain the government strategy of both nations. The latest reports on the Saudi government budget, which is based on a $50 per barrel scenario, is realistically too optimistic, as prices right now are in the low $40s. For Russia, its economy has been hit from all sides, as oil and gas is weak, demand worldwide is down, and the diversification of its economy is stalling. Putin’s maneuverability, however, is higher than that of the Saudi rulers. Russia’s global power position still opens doors to make life bearable in the coming months.

Saudi Arabia, however, is looking at a situation in which a straightforward strategy does not seem to exist. Without higher crude oil prices, not only is the Kingdom’s flagship Saudi Aramco suffering but most government projects too. The world’s largest oil company has already put several major new projects on hold, while at the same time reassessing investment levels of others. High-profile offshore projects, such as the Red Sea or the setup of the new shipyard in Ras Al Khair, are not progressing as fast anymore, showing some internal constraints.

Aramco is also being squeezed by Riyadh for cash to fund the ongoing Saudi Vision 2030 projects. Diversification of the economy is needed, but without cash, projects are being delayed or even put on ice. The Kingdom’s finances are struggling, already shown by the fact that international interest for Saudi (and Russian) government bonds is waning. Last week’s US$ -denominated government bonds to Russia and Saudi Arabia have fallen, mainly due to lower oil prices and U.S. election issues. If capital markets are getting worried, then Riyadh and Moscow really are in trouble. Drastic measures will need to be taken.

With an internal crisis looming, the Bear and the Kingdom could be forced to take totally different roads. If the threats made by Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman that the Kingdom has had enough of profit takers, short investors, or lack of support of members, are to be taken face value, the market should not be surprised if the OPEC leader decides again to go its own way. A more aggressive move by Riyadh towards market-share or oil prices is not at all unthinkable. The ongoing financial onslaught wreaking havoc on IOCs and oilfield services is also hitting NOCs. Revenues and profits are still high, but their respective governments are in dire need of cash. The relationship between Russia and Saudi Arabia may have appeared to be a marriage made in heaven, but now it is all falling apart.

With internal financial pressures and increased unemployment, especially amongst young people, young leaders in the Middle East are likely to follow their hearts. If cooperation will not bring the necessary rewards, the old option of a new oil price war is not unimaginable. The global energy transition and fossil fuel divestments are already removing the weak for the oil and gas industry. There is a need for consolidation, maybe Russia and Saudi Arabia will follow a Malthusian-Darwinian approach in the future. This time, both IOCs-independents and some weaker OPEC+ producers will suffer. Statements made these weeks that Saudi Arabia wants to be the last oil producer standing or the “Sole Survivor” should not be taken lightly. This implicit threat needs to be taken at face value. The gloves are likely to come off in the coming months, and oil markets will have to be ready.