据美国能源情报署1月16日报道，美国能源情报署（EIA）发布的最新《短期能源展望》（STEO）中预测，2020年电力行业天然气发电厂的发电量将增长1.3%。这一增长率将是2017年以来天然气发电增长率最低的一次。EIA预测，太阳能和风能等非水电可再生能源的发电量将在2020年增长15%，为四年来的最快增速。预计2020年燃煤电厂的发电量将下降13%。
在过去十年，电力部门在增加更多天然气发电能力的同时，也在逐步淘汰燃煤发电厂。在2019，EIA估计美国12.7千兆瓦的燃煤发电能力已经退役，相当于今年年初燃煤发电量的5%。另外5.8千兆瓦的美国煤炭发电能力计划在2020年退役，预计今年燃煤发电量将下降13%。相比之下，EIA估计，电力部门已经或计划在2019年和2020年在天然气联合循环发电厂增加11.4千兆瓦的容量。
以可再生能源，特别是太阳能和风能为燃料的发电能力近年来稳步增长。EIA预计，美国电力部门将在2019年和2020年新增19.3千兆瓦的公用事业规模太阳能发电能力，较2018年的发电能力水平增长65%。EIA预计2019年和2020年将新增风电装机容量增长32%，或近30GW。这种新的可再生能源发电能力大多在年底上线，这将影响下一年的发电趋势。
11个STEO供电区域的预测发电组合各不相同。退役燃煤发电量的很大一部分位于大西洋中部地区，由PJM管理电力调度。EIA预测，2020年大西洋中部的煤炭发电量将减少370亿千瓦时。大西洋中部天然气发电厂的发电量增加抵消了部分下降；EIA预计这些发电厂的发电量将增长230亿千瓦时。
在中西部地区，由Midcontain ISO（MISO）管理电力，EIA预计2020年煤炭发电量将下降330亿千瓦时。天然气发电量（120亿千瓦时）和非水电可再生能源（130亿千瓦时）的增加抵消了这一下降。可再生能源的区域增长主要是由于新的风力发电能力。
德州电力可靠性委员会（ERCOT）管理的德州地区电力部门正计划从风能和太阳能两方面大幅增加发电能力。EIA预计，这一新的发电量今年将增加240亿千瓦时的非水电可再生能源发电量。EIA预计，增加的ERCOT可再生能源发电量将导致2020年各燃料源的天然气发电量和煤炭发电量的区域性下降，达到140亿千瓦时。
EIA预计这些趋势将持续到2021年。EIA预测，随着电力部门继续扩大太阳能和风能的产能，明年美国非水电可再生能源发电量将增长17%。可再生能源的增加，加上天然气燃料成本的预测增长，促使EIA预测2021年天然气发电量将下降2.3%。预计2021年美国煤炭发电量将下降3.2%。
贾丽 编译自 美国能源情报署
原文如下：
EIA forecasts slower growth in natural gas-fired generation while renewable energy rises
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on January 14, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that generation from natural gas-fired power plants in the electric power sector will grow by 1.3% in 2020. This growth rate would be the slowest growth rate in natural gas generation since 2017. EIA forecasts that generation from nonhydropower renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, will grow by 15% in 2020—the fastest rate in four years. Forecast generation from coal-fired power plants declines by 13% in 2020.
During the past decade, the electric power sector has been retiring coal-fired generation plants while adding more natural gas generating capacity. In 2019, EIA estimates that 12.7 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired capacity in the United States was retired, equivalent to 5% of the total existing coal-fired capacity at the beginning of the year. An additional 5.8 GW of U.S. coal capacity is scheduled to retire in 2020, contributing to a forecast 13% decline in coal-fired generation this year. In contrast, EIA estimates that the electric power sector has added or plans to add 11.4 GW of capacity at natural gas combined-cycle power plants in 2019 and 2020.
Generating capacity fueled by renewable energy sources, especially solar and wind, has increased steadily in recent years. EIA expects the U.S. electric power sector will add 19.3 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity in 2019 and 2020, a 65% increase from 2018 capacity levels. EIA expects a 32% increase of new wind capacity—or nearly 30 GW—to be installed in 2019 and 2020. Much of this new renewables capacity comes online at the end of the year, which affects generation trends in the following year.
Forecast generation mix varies in each of the 11 STEO electricity supply regions. A large proportion of the retired coal-fired capacity is located in the mid-Atlantic area, where PJM manages the dispatch of electricity. EIA forecasts that coal generation in the mid-Atlantic will decline by 37 billion kilowatthours (kWh) in 2020. Some of this decline is offset by more generation from mid-Atlantic natural gas-fired power plants; EIA expects generation from these plants to grow by 23 billion kWh.
In the Midwest, where the Midcontinent ISO (MISO) manages electricity, EIA expects coal generation to fall in 2020 by 33 billion kWh. This decline is offset by an increase in natural gas electricity generation (12 billion kWh) and by nonhydropower renewable energy sources (13 billion kWh). The regional increase in renewables is primarily a result of new wind generating capacity.
The electric power sector in the area of Texas managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is planning to see large increases in generating capacity from both wind and solar. EIA expects this new capacity will increase generation from nonhydropower renewable energy sources by 24 billion kWh this year. EIA expects the increased ERCOT renewable generation will lead to a regional decline of natural gas-fired generation and coal generation of 14 billion kWh for each fuel source in 2020.
EIA expects these trends to continue into 2021. EIA forecasts U.S. generation from nonhydropower renewable energy sources will grow by 17% next year as the electric power sector continues expanding solar and wind capacity. This increase in renewables, along with forecast increases in natural gas fuel costs, contributes to EIA’s forecast of a 2.3% decline in natural gas-fired generation in 2021. U.S. coal generation in 2021 is forecast to fall by 3.2%.?
