路透社9月12日报道，能源咨询公司IHS Markit周四的一份报告显示，美国天然气供应过剩将推动亨利中心基准的平均价格降至上世纪70年代以来的最低水平。
这种供应过剩将来自新的管道，新管道将允许与德克萨斯州西部和新墨西哥州东部的二叠纪盆地石油生产相关的新天然气产量激增。
IHS Markit预测，亨利中心2020年的平均天然气价格将降至1.92美元/百万英热单位，这是上世纪70年代以来，包括通胀影响的最低实际价格。
按名义价格计算，上一次跌破2美元/百万英热单位是在1995年，当时的平均价格为1.69美元/百万英热单位。
在路透社对亨利中心的价格预测中，IHS Markit对2020年的预测是所有分析中最低的，该预测2020年的平均价格为2.75美元//百万英热单位。
2019年到目前为止，亨利中心NG-W-HH-SNL基准的天然气现货平均价格为2.62美元/百万英热单位。
IHS Markit表示，尽管美国国内需求强劲，自2017年以来每天增加140亿立方米，出口也在不断增长，但明年价格仍将下跌。
IHS Markit表示，预计美国将在2020年再增加30亿立方米/日的液化天然气（LNG）出口量。
IHS Markit表示，市场将不足以吸收自2018年1月以来已增长逾140亿立方米/日的产量，并指出预计2019年和2020年的平均产量将超过900亿立方米/日。2018年，干气平均产量达到创纪录的834亿立方米/日。
IHS Markit负责北美天然气市场的执行董事Sam Andrus 表示：“这实在是太快了，钻探商现在能够比国内或全球市场更快地增加供应。”
两个关键因素将推动二叠纪与石油生产相关的天然气激增，这意味着它对低天然气价格信号不那么敏感，以及增加天然气管道，预计将缓解运输限制和天然气燃烧。
金德摩根公司在德克萨斯州修建的价值17.5亿美元的墨西哥湾Express管道将于10月份投入运营，届时将使二叠纪的产能增加20亿立方米/日。
由于墨西哥湾Express管道准备投入服务，位于二叠纪盆地的瓦哈中心NG-WAH-WTX-SNL现货天然气价格升至3月份以来的最高水平，从而降低了亨利对瓦哈的溢价。
总体而言，到2022年，二叠纪天然气运送量预计将增加60亿立方米/日。
最终，相关天然气的快速增长给价格带来的下行压力将抑制钻井活动，并使市场恢复平衡。IHS Markit表示，预计亨利中心的价格将出现反弹，2021年的平均价格为2.25美元/百万英热单位。
IHS Markit 能源副总裁Shankari Srinivasan表示： “价格上涨刺激供应，价格下跌抑制供应，这里唯一的要素是所需削减的程度，但仍有迹象表明，即将到来的价格下跌，其‘保质期’有限，而不是新的常态。”
詹晓晶 摘自 路透社
原文如下：
U.S. natgas prices to fall to lowest since the 70s - IHS Markit
An oversupply of natural gas in the United States will drive average prices in real terms at the Henry Hub benchmark to a level not seen since the 1970s, according to a report from IHS Markit on Thursday.
That oversupply will come from new pipelines that will allow a surge of new gas output associated with oil production in the Permian basin in West Texas and eastern New Mexico.
IHS Markit forecast average gas prices in 2020 at the Henry Hub will drop to $1.92 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest in real terms - including the effect of inflation - since the 1970s.
In nominal terms, prices last fell below $2 per mmBtu in 1995 when they averaged $1.69.
IHS Markit’s forecast for 2020 is the lowest of any analyst in a Reuters poll of Henry Hub price projections, which was calling for an average of $2.75 for 2020.
Spot prices at the Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL have averaged $2.62 so far in 2019.
IHS Markit said prices would drop next year despite robust domestic demand, which has increased by 14 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) since 2017, and rising exports.
The United States is expected to export an additional 3 bcfd of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2020, IHS Markit said.
That will not be enough to absorb production that has grown by more than 14 bcfd since January 2018, IHS Markit said, noting it expects output to average more than 90 bcfd in 2019 and 2020. Dry gas output averaged a record 83.4 bcfd in 2018.
“It is simply too much too fast,” said Sam Andrus, IHS Markit executive director, who covers North American gas markets. “Drillers are now able to increase supply faster than domestic or global markets can consume it.”
Two key factors will drive the Permian surge - gas associated with oil production, meaning it is less sensitive to low gas price signals, and the addition of gas pipelines that are expected to alleviate transportation constraints and gas flaring.
Kinder Morgan Inc’s $1.75 billion Gulf Coast Express pipeline in Texas, scheduled to come online in October, will allow for an additional 2 bcfd of Permian production capacity.
Spot gas prices at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian basin rose to their highest since March as Gulf Coast Express prepares to enter service, cutting Henry Hub’s premium over Waha.
Overall, Permian gas takeaway capacity is expected to increase 6 bcfd through 2022.
Eventually, downward pressure on prices from rapid growth of associated gas will curtail drilling activity and bring the market back into balance. IHS Markit said it expects Henry Hub prices to rebound and average $2.25 for 2021.
“Rising prices stimulate supply and falling prices curtail it. What is unique here is the extent of reduction required. But signs still point to this coming price fall having a limited shelf life rather than being the new normal,”said Shankari Srinivasan, IHS Markit vice president of energy.
