据烃加工在线6月17日消息称，GlobalData表示，未来五年，全球聚乙烯产能有望大幅增长，有望从2018年的1.1012亿吨/年增至2023年的1.5702亿吨/年，在亚洲和北美的引领下，全球聚乙烯产能将增长43%。

该公司的报告称:“到2023年的全球聚乙烯产业前景——产能和资本支出预测，以及所有正在运营和计划建设的工厂的详细情况”，显示未来5年，计划和宣布建设的工厂约有159家，主要分布在亚洲和中东。

预计亚洲聚乙烯产能将从2018年的3987万吨/年增长到2023年的5710万吨/年，年均增长7.2%。到2023年，中国在该地区的产能将增加756万吨/年。主要新增产能将来自独山子石化股份有限公司独山子聚乙烯二厂，到2023年产能将达到60万吨/年。

GlobalData石油和天然气分析师Dayanand Kharade表示：“在亚洲，人口众多、经济不断增长的中国，预计聚乙烯需求将继续增长。为了满足这一需求，中国将大举增加产能。中国将占亚洲新增聚乙烯产能的40%以上。”

GlobalData指出，北美是全球聚乙烯行业产能增加第二多的地区。预计将从2018年的2315万吨/年增长到2023年的3382万吨/年，年增长率为7.6%。增加的聚乙烯产能大多来自美国，到2023年产能约为935万吨/年。主要新增产能将来自工厂、埃克森美孚博蒙特高性能聚乙烯工厂和雪佛龙菲利普斯化学公司帕萨迪纳聚乙烯工厂，年产能分别为130万吨和990万吨。

在中东地区，聚乙烯产能预计将从2018年的2,080万吨/年增长至2023年的2,852万吨/年，年复合增长率为6.3%。到2023年，伊朗的石油产能将增加约554万吨/日。新增产能主要来自NPC Hormozgan聚乙烯总1厂和NPC Hormozgan聚乙烯总2厂，到2023年，它们的产能将达到50万吨/年。

Kharade补充说：“对北美和中东来说，低成本、丰富的天然气供应是聚乙烯产能激增的主要原因。除了原料优势，目标出口到其他美国国家也是美国大幅增加产能的原因。”

俄罗斯地区的聚乙烯产能预计将从2018年的295万吨/年增长到2023年的916万吨/年，年复合增长率为22.6%。预计到2023年，俄罗斯将成为该地区最大的石油生产国，年产能将增加463万吨。新增产能主要来自远东石油化工股份有限公司纳霍德卡聚乙烯工厂，到2023年产能将达到88万吨/年。

非洲是第五高，从2018年的205万吨/年增加到2023年的470万吨/年，年复合增长率为16.6％。埃及在产能增加方面领先于非洲，预计到2023年将增加135万吨/年的产能。

Badlands NGLS公司、石油和天然气公司以及荷兰皇家壳牌公司是全球前三家计划在未来一段时间增加产能的公司。

曹海斌 摘译自 烃加工在线

原文如下：

Polyethylene capacity additions led by North America and Asia by 2023

Global polyethylene capacity is poised to see considerable growth over the next five years, potentially increasing from 110.12 million tpy in 2018 to 157.02 million tpy in 2023, registering a total growth of 43%, led by Asia and North America, says GlobalData.

The company’s report: ‘Global Polyethylene Industry Outlook to 2023 – Capacity and Capital Expenditure Forecasts with Details of All Active and Planned Plants’ reveals that around 159 planned and announced plants are scheduled to come online, predominantly in Asia and the Middle East, over the next five years.

Polyethylene capacity in Asia is expected to increase from 39.87 million tpy in 2018 to 57.1 million tpy in 2023, at an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 7.2%. Among the countries in the region, China will add a capacity of 7.56 million tpy by 2023. Major capacity addition will be from the plant, Dushanzi Petrochemical Co. Dushanzi Polyethylene Plant 2 (Swing), with a capacity of 600 000 tpy by 2023.

Dayanand Kharade, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, says: “In Asia, China, with its huge population and growing economy, is expected to continue to rise in polyethylene demand. To meet this demand, the country is set to have large capacity additions. China will account for more than 40% of Asia’s polyethylene capacity additions.”

GlobalData identifies North America as the second highest in terms of polyethylene capacity additions in the global polyethylene industry. It is expected to increase from 23.15 million tpy in 2018 to 33.82 million tpy in 2023, at an AAGR of 7.6%. Most polyethylene capacity additions are from the US, with capacity of around 9.35 million tpy by 2023. Major capacity addition will be from the plants, Exxon Mobil Corp. Beaumont High Performance Polyethylene Plant and Chevron Phillips Chemical Co. Pasadena Polyethylene Plant, with capacities of 1.30 million tpy and 990 000 tpy, respectively.

Within the Middle East, polyethylene capacity is expected to increase from 20.8 million tpy in 2018 to 28.52 million tpy in 2023, at an AAGR of 6.3%. Among countries, Iran’s capacity will add around 5.54 million tpy by 2023. Major capacity additions will be from the plants, Total NPC Hormozgan Polyethylene Plant 1 and Total NPC Hormozgan Polyethylene Plant 2, each with the capacity of 500 000 tpy by 2023.

Kharade added, “For North America and Middle East, the low-cost abundant supply of natural gas is the primary reason for the rush in polyethylene capacity additions. In addition to feedstock advantage, target exports to other American countries are also the reason for large capacity additions in the US.

Polyethylene capacity in?Russian is expected to increase from 2.95 million tpy in 2018 to 9.16 million tpy in 2023, at an AAGR of 22.6%. Russia is forecast to be the top country in the region with capacity additions of 4.63 million tpy by 2023. Major capacity additions will be from the plant, Far East Petrochemical Co. Nakhodka Polyethylene Plant, with a capacity of 880 000 tpy by 2023.

Africa is the fifth highest, increasing from 2.05 million tpy in 2018 to 4.70 million tpy in 2023, at an AAGR of 16.6%. Egypt leads in Africa in terms of capacity additions and it is expected to add a capacity of 1.35 million tpy by 2023.

Badlands NGLS LLC, Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd and Royal Dutch Shell Plc are the top three companies globally in terms of planned capacity additions over the outlook period.