据烃加工在线7月21日消息，四位追踪发货量的消息人士称，亚洲裂解装置预计将转而使用更廉价的替代原料液化石油气（LPG），以满足石脑油供应短缺的现状，因为8月来自西方的石脑油供应将降至四个月低点。

这几位消息人士称，由于欧洲减产，8月份从欧洲、地中海和美国出口至亚洲市场的石脑油货运量将从5月份的纪录高点下降至少40%，降至160万吨至170万吨。他们表示，这比7月份的出口量下降了约7-9%。

预计亚洲石脑油买家将转向价格最近开始走软的LPG。目前，大多数买家的裂解装置正在开足马力进行生产。这可能对石脑油现货价格和利润率造成进一步压力。

运营石脑油裂解装置的石化生产商通常可以用LPG替代5%至15%的关键原料石脑油。

尽管多数裂解装置运营商们拥有LPG的定期供应，但它们会购买一些现货，但只有在LPG价格对石脑油价格每吨至少有50美元的折扣时才会购买。LPG(一种丙烷和丁烷的混合物)的强劲需求，使其现货价格一直居高不下，直到6月份。

张春晓 摘译自 烃加工在线

原文如下：

Asia naphtha market under pressure as crackers eye cheaper alternative LPG

Crackers in Asia are expected to switch to cheaper alternative feedstock LPG to meet shortfalls of naphtha whose supplies from the west is set to drop to a four-month low in August, four sources who track the shipments said.

Cumulative east-bound naphtha cargoes from Europe, the Mediterranean and the United States will fall at least 40% in August to 1.6 million-1.7 million tons from May’s record high due to run cuts in Europe, they said. That is about 7-9% lower versus July, they said.

Buyers, most of whom are operating their crackers at full-tilt, are expected to turn to LPG, whose prices have recently started weakening. That could exert further pressure on naphtha spot prices and margins.

Petrochemical makers who operate naphtha crackers typically can replace 5% to 15% of their key feedstock with LPG.

While most have term supplies of LPG, they would buy some spot cargoes but only when the prices are trading at a discount of at least $50 a tonne to naphtha.

Strong demand for LPG, a mixture of propane and butane, had kept its spot prices high until June.