据Oil & Gas Journal网站7月21日报道 美国原定于2021年启动的管道项目正面临来自不确定的需求前景、漫长的法庭诉讼和监管审查的巨大挑战。虽然一些已经在建的项目正在推进，但根据ESAI能源的北美观察报告，约270万桶/天的新管道项目将被推迟。

由于法律层面原因，达科他州57万桶/天的Access管道（DAPL）及其计划扩建受影响。报告称，随着其他输油管道的满负荷，DAPL的关闭将造成瓶颈，从而导致对铁路的更多依赖和巴肯原油价格的走弱，这反过来又会对由于疫情的影响而关闭的生产造成不利影响。

在对延期项目的总结中，该报告显示，尽管DAPL正面临因环境许可而可能关闭的局面，但由于COVID-19导致经济状况恶化，将向库欣输送更多巴克肯原油的35万桶/天的Liberty石油管道在3月被推迟。由于北达科他州管道外运量不足，预计铁路运输原油将增加约30-35万桶/天。该报告进一步得出结论，部分减少的巴肯原油产量可能无法恢复，该盆地将在2020年减少约27万桶/天，2021年将再下降6.5万桶/天。

ESAI能源分析师Elisabeth Murphy表示：“达科他州准入的不确定结果将对巴肯产生连锁反应，比如资本被转移到其他更容易进入市场的盆地。如果不增加钻井平台和压裂人员的支出，巴肯油田将面临更困难的时期，以抵消下滑，使产量恢复到2019年的水平。”

吴恒磊 编译自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

ESAI: 2.7 million b/d US crude pipeline capacity delayed in 2021

Pipeline projects in the US that were slated for startup in 2021 are facing huge challenges from an uncertain demand outlook, lengthy court battles, and regulatory review. While some projects already under construction are moving forward, about 2.7 million b/d of new takeaway will be postponed, according to ESAI Energy’s North America Watch report.

The most noteworthy is the potential loss of the 570,000 b/d Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) and its planned expansion due to legal hurdles. A shutdown DAPL will create bottlenecks as other pipelines fill up, resulting in more dependency on rail and weaker prices for Bakken crude, the report said. This in turn will adversely impact production that had already been shut in due to the impacts of COVID-19.

In its summation of postponed projects, the report shows that while DAPL is facing a potential shutdown due to environmental permitting, the 350,000 b/d Liberty pipeline that would deliver more Bakken crude to Cushing was deferred in March due to deteriorating economic conditions resulting from COVID-19. The lack of pipeline takeaway from North Dakota is expected to result in an increase in crude-by-rail of some 300,000–350,000 b/d. The report further concludes that some curtailed Bakken production may not be brought back, and the basin will decline by roughly 270,000 b/d on an annual basis in 2020 and by a further 65,000 b/d in 2021.

“An uncertain outcome for Dakota Access will have knock-on effects for the Bakken, such as capital being diverted to other basins that have better access to markets,” said Elisabeth Murphy, analyst at ESAI Energy. “Without spending on more rigs and frac crews, the Bakken will have a more difficult time offsetting decline and getting production back up to 2019 levels.”