据路透社(Reuters)报道，俄罗斯能源部长亚历山大?诺瓦克(Alexander Novak) 7月16日表示，全球石油需求将在下月大幅复苏，与疫情流行前的全球需求水平相比，将上升至10%以内。

诺瓦克说，与病毒爆发前的需求水平相比，4月份的需求下降了25%，导致了世界范围内的大规模封锁，包括世界上最大的两个石油消费国中国和美国。

昨日，欧佩克同意在8月1日放松过去几个月的减产计划，预计需求将相应改善。欧佩克将从5月、6月和7月970万桶/天的产量削减中减少200万桶/天的削减量。

然而，欧佩克警告说有可能进行另一波爆发的浪潮，特别是在美国将继续削弱需求。

作为欧佩克+组织的一部分，俄罗斯发布了一份关于石油产量增长的警告，称欧佩克+成员国8月份增加的石油产量将用于每个国家的国内消费，而不是出口。诺瓦克坚称，俄罗斯将有能力在8月份消耗任何额外的产量。

俄罗斯乌拉尔山脉现在的价格是1澳元。不过与到期日的布伦特原油相比存在50倍的溢价，因此俄罗斯可能会试图出口这一级别的原油，以利用这一有利价差。

根据美国能源信息署和美国石油协会提供的数据，对于全球最明显的以数据为主导的石油市场美国来说，这是至关重要的。沙特阿拉伯6月出口下降，这使得美国本周的库存有所减少。

欧佩克从8月份开始增加产量，预计将持续到12月份。

赵斌 编译自 Neftegaz.RU

原文如下：

A.Novak: Get ready for a significant uptick in crude oil demand

Global oil demand will recover significantly next month, climbing to be within 10% of the level that the world saw prior to the coronavirus pandemic, Russia Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on July 16, according to Reuters.

That demand, according to Novak, was off by 25% in April, compared to demand levels before the virus hit, causing major lockdowns the world over - including the world’s top 2 oil consumers, China and the U.S. OPEC seems to agree.

Yesterday, OPEC agreed to relax on August 1 its production cuts that it had set for the last couple of months, with the anticipation that demand would improve accordingly. OPEC will reinstate 2 million barrels per day of oil production from its 9.7 million bpd that it had cut in May, June, and July.

OPEC cautioned, however, that another possible wave of the coronavirus - particularly in the United States - would continue to sap demand.

Russia, as part of the OPEC+ group, issued a caveat for the increase in oil production, stating that the additional oil produced by OPEC+ member countries in August would be consumed domestically by each country, and not exported. Novak insists that Russia will be able to consume any additional production for August.

Russian Urals is now trading at a $.50 premium to dated Brent, however, and so Russia could be tempted to export that grade in order to capitalize on the favorable differential.

For the world’s most visible data-dominated oil market, the United States, this is critical, with Saudi Arabia’s exports dropping off in June, which allowed US inventories to draw down this week, according to data provided by the EIA and API.

The increased OPEC+ production starting in August is expected to run through December.