据今日油价3月8日报道，尽管投资回报低于海上石油和天然气，海上风能仍将成为能源转型中一个越来越有吸引力的投资点。

伍德麦肯兹在本月发布的一份最新报告中称，2020年至2025年期间，全球海上风能投资总额预计将达到2110亿美元，海上风能市场对石油和天然气公司的吸引力也将越来越大。

海上风电高级分析师瑟伦·拉森（S?ren Lassen）和姆海里奇·埃文斯（Mhairidh Evans）表示，未来5年，随着海上上游资本支出到2022年稳定，到2025年有所下降，海上风电投资的增长将缩小与海上油气投资的差距。

伍德麦肯兹的分析师表示，在欧洲、中国和南亚等一些成熟的上游板块地区，海上风能投资可能会在本世纪20年代达到与油气投资相当的水平。

目前，海上石油和天然气正在与其他油气项目的短期投资趋势竞争，这种趋势降低了2022年后投资前景的可见度和确定性。

在海上风能领域，投资主要取决于政府的激励措施。分析师称，截至2025年，风电产能的预估中有82%已获得支持，或处于更高级的开发阶段，这与政府激励措施相关的部署，为投资前景提供了高度的确定性和透明度。

值得注意的是，到2025年，海上风能项目的规模将跃升63%，而这些大型海上工程的范围和配套设施将吸引大量石油进入海上风能市场。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Offshore Wind To See $200+ Billion Expansion By 2025

Despite lower returns than offshore oil and gas, offshore wind will become an increasingly attractive investment destination in the energy transition.

Global investments in offshore wind are expected to total US$211 billion between 2020 and 2025, and the offshore wind market will become more attractive to oil and gas companies, Wood Mackenzie said in a new report this month.

Over the next five years, growing investments in offshore wind are set to narrow the gap with offshore oil and gas investments as capital expenditure in offshore upstream is set to stabilize until 2022 and then drop through 2025, said S?ren Lassen, senior offshore wind analyst, and Mhairidh Evans, principal upstream supply chain analyst at WoodMac.

In some mature well-established upstream areas offshore Europe, China, and South Asia there could be “a point of convergence in those regions in the 2020s where offshore wind investment will match oil and gas,” WoodMac’s analysts said.

Offshore oil and gas is now competing with the current trend of shorter-cycle investments in other oil and gas projects, and this trend lowers the visibility and certainty of investment outlooks beyond 2022.

In offshore wind, investments mostly hinge on government incentives. A total of 82 percent of the forecast offshore capacity to 2025 has been awarded a support scheme or is in more advanced stages of development, WoodMac’s analysts say, noting that the deployment tied to government incentives provides high certainty and transparency in investment outlooks.

Another point for offshore wind is that the size of the projects is set to jump by 63 percent through 2025, and those large offshore work scope and packages attract Big Oil to the offshore wind market, WoodMac said.