据世界石油1月15日伦敦彭博社报道,欧佩克的最新预测表明,今年全球石油市场的前景较弱,因为从挪威到圭亚那的竞争对手的供应猛增,威胁到该组织捍卫原油价格的努力。
该组织及其盟国(合计约占世界石油产量的一半)正在开始新一轮的减产,因为又一年蓬勃发展的竞争对手供应有可能释放出新的过剩。欧佩克的最新月度报告显示,他们所面临的挑战远远超出了得克萨斯州和北达科他州的页岩气田。
欧佩克组织将非成员国2020年日产量增长的预测提高18万桶,至235万桶,因为在油价下跌的时代,海上项目一度被认为是不可行的。虽然美国的前景有所降低,但美国仍将占新产量的近三分之二。
尽管该组织提高了对世界需求的估计,但竞争对手的供应量将以大约两倍的速度增长,这有可能破坏联盟维持其成员国石油收入的战略。即使在美国和伊朗之间紧张局势加剧的情况下,伦敦原油期货价格仍接近每桶64美元,接近一个月以来的最低水平,这使人们再次担心主要供应中断。
欧佩克以及包括俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦在内的盟国正在加紧削减去年的产量,以消除全球过多的库存,并保证每天抑制约210万桶的石油。本月的报告表明,这些措施应该足以在第一季度耗尽库存,但第二季度可能会出现盈余。
据报告显示,沙特阿拉伯是该组织最大的成员,也是事实上的领导人,在新协议生效之前就急于执行几乎所有的其他削减承诺。沙特阿拉伯12月份的日产量减少了11.1万桶,至每天976.2万桶。
结果,该组织的总产量上个月降至每天2944万。如果其他国家仅执行其承诺的减排量的一部分,则第一季度的平均日产量应接近2919万。但是,即使完全合规也不能阻止第二季度库存的增加,当时欧佩克对原油的需求下降到每天2856万。
该组织的所有盟国将于3月初举行会议,届时协议将到期,以决定是否继续执行该战略。
郝芬 译自 世界石油
原文如下:
OPEC sees growing supply threat from rivals beyond U.S. shale
OPEC’s latest forecasts suggested a weaker outlook for global oil markets this year as surging supplies from competitors from Norway to Guyana threaten the group’s efforts to defend crude prices.
The organization and its allies -- which together account for about half the world’s oil output -- are embarking on a fresh round of production cuts as another year of booming rival supplies threatens to unleash a new glut. OPEC’s latest monthly report shows their challenge extends far beyond the shale patch of Texas and North Dakota.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted forecasts for growth in output from non-members in 2020 by 180,000 barrels a day to 2.35 million a day, as offshore projects once seen unfeasible in an era of lower oil prices take off. While the outlook for the U.S. was lowered, America will still account for almost two thirds of the new output.
Although the group raised estimates for world demand, rival supplies will grow about twice as fast, potentially derailing the coalition’s strategy to maintain oil revenues for its members. Crude futures are trading near $64 a barrel in London, close to the lowest in a month, even after flaring tensions between the U.S. and Iran rekindled fears of a major supply disruption.
OPEC and allies including Russia and Kazakhstan are deepening production cutbacks made last year in order to remove excess global inventories, pledging overall curbs of about 2.1 million barrels a day. This month’s report suggests those measures should be sufficient to deplete stockpiles during the first quarter, but that a surplus will probably return in the second.
Saudi Arabia, the group’s biggest member and de facto leader, rushed to implement almost all of the additional reductions pledged before the new agreement even took effect, the report showed. The kingdom reduced output by 111,000 barrels a day in December to 9.762 million a day.
As a result, the organization’s total production fell to 29.44 million a day last month. If other nations implement just part of their pledged reductions, output should be near the average of 29.19 million a day needed in the first quarter. However, even full compliance won’t prevent stocks building up in the second quarter, when the requirement for OPEC’s crude drops to 28.56 million a day.
The full alliance is due to meet in early March, when the agreement is due to expire, to decide whether to continue with the strategy.